By Chris Havlicek Contributor
Updated 12/12/23 3:50pm ET
Handicapping college football bowl games has always presented unique challenges, such as trying to assess coaching changes and calibrate a team’s focus or motivation. But it’s now a completely new world, thanks to the transfer portal and player opt-outs – terms that were never uttered until 2020.
The numbers are staggering. As of this writing, 2,734 FBS players have entered the portal. Nearly one-third (13) of the 40 non-CFP bowls will feature a team that’s missing a starting quarterback, head coach, or offensive or defensive coordinator, according to Action Network’s Brett McMurphy.
Bowl-eligibility use to signify a successful season and players would embrace the opportunity to finish on a high note. Nowadays, the games seem more like glorified exhibitions. The number of players forgoing them is growing exponentially, as they now look to avoid injury ahead of the NFL Draft or NIL money entices them to transfer schools immediately.
USC star quarterback Caleb Williams is a prime example. The former Heisman Trophy winner is the favorite (-650 at DraftKings) to be selected with the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. He will not suit up for the Holiday Bowl, and thus the Trojans will face Louisville as 7.5-point underdogs with QB Miller Moss making his first career start. One oddsmaker told our Doug Kezirian that unranked USC would instead be about a three-point favorite over the 15th-ranked Cardinals with Williams under center.
Last year, in a battle of FCS schools, undefeated Jackson State faced North Carolina Central as 17.5-point favorites in the Celebration Bowl. Head coach Deion Sanders had committed to taking the Colorado job and several key players and coaches were set to join him, although Sanders did coach this game. The Tigers ultimately lost in overtime.
For the most part, the betting market handles all these moving parts fairly effectively. The largest FBS upset last year was Pitt, a nine-point underdog, defeating UCLA. However, the Bruins did lead by two touchdowns late in the third quarter.
The bowl season resembles preseason betting, which prioritizes and rewards the race for information. We subsequently see significant line moves, as news of injuries, coaching changes and transfers surface. In the 2020 Cotton Bowl, Florida opened as a three-point favorite over Oklahoma but the Sooners closed around a 6.5-point favorite and won 55-20.
The bowl bonanza starts this Saturday, and we will undoubtedly see mayhem in many forms that has now become a part of bowl season.
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