Bet-ology: Headfake 🎥

This is a tactic used by respected bettors that is intended to dupe oddsmakers. The objective is to move the betting market so they can eventually capitalize for a larger profit.

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Sports betting is complicated and it can be intimidating as a new bettor. We’re here to help.

Bryan
All right, it’s time for Professor Doug to put on his hat, lay me down on the couch and learn me something, betology. You’re gonna give me some term that I’ve never heard of and make it make sense to me. We’re going with headfake. I know basketball terms.

Doug
Yeah, it’s very similar. It’s you, the bettors do that. Really, it’s a pump fake by a betting outfit. So a group that is really respected or any bettor that’s really respected can influence the market. Well, if you know your actions can move the market, sometimes you use that influence to move the market in an even more advantageous way. So what happens is they’ll bet one side of a game, a group or a person, and then come over the top and bet the other side after the entire market moves. Gotcha.

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by a betting outfit. So a group that is really respected or any better that’s really respected can influence the market. Well, if you know your actions can move the market, sometimes you use that influence to move the market in an even more advantageous way. Got you. So what happens is they’ll bet one side of the game, a group or a person, and then come over the top and bet the other side after the entire market moves.

Bryan
Got you.

Doug
So the head fake is an actual move, but it’s, it’s a set up a bigger move later. So what happens is let’s say there’s a Thursday night football game, right? Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, the house limits are lower on game day. They’re higher. Okay. Much like in the NBA overnight, you can’t bet that much, but game day you can. So when the limits are lower, it doesn’t take that much of a bet to move the market. So they’ll bet the max a day in advance or two days in advance, and then the entire market will copy. And that’s the main thing that people need to realize is there’s almost like 11 Wall Streets. There’s Caesars, there’s MGM, there’s DraftKings. You have to think of all of them. So if one book, let’s say a respected bettor always bets at Caesars and they bet on the favorite, they’ll move it. And then all the other books, in like the NFL, because they all stay at the core and they don’t just have one line at three, the other one’s at five. They’ll all move when they see another book move. So they’re all sort of connected. At least their screens all light up kind of like a Bloomberg screen. They have something similar. So they’re trading screens. They have odd screens and everything. So they see right when it moves, there’s beeps all the time. I even have subscribed to the same services. So my laptops will beep and things like that when there’s line moves. So let’s say there’s a move and that’s why when they bet at multiple books, they’ll do it all at the same time on the apps and stuff. So they’ll move one book for a max bet on like Tuesday, but it’s not that much money. It’s like a few thousand dollars. And then come game day, you can bet five figures are like all these books. So they’ll use it to get off a key number or something like that.

Now, oddsmakers are not dumb. They know that this exists, the concept of the head fake. So if you continue to use and abuse them, your business will no longer be accepted. So you have to kind of pick your spots when to do this or use someone else to do it, a beard that’s called a runner or something like that. You have to do things like that to stay in good graces but also manipulate the market accordingly. And pro bettors typically are all competing with one another. Like the house is gonna get their percentage and figure it all out and move the market accordingly. But you’re really, it’s sort of like a race to each other, the head fake and things like that. Now, pros will be on opposite sides of the game always. It’s not like all of them are on the same side always, sometimes, very few times. But you have to like kind of beat the others to like the game and all that stuff.

So, the futures market’s really fun because you’re always racing to get the best odds in the futures market. But a headfake is a bet. It’s not just a step up to the counter and pretend a bet and then walk away. You actually bet, but you bet with the intention of moving the market so you can come over the top the other way.

Bryan
All right. Headfake.

Doug
So when you’re reading the market like I do and try to make some calls and things like that, you want to get a read of what the bet was. Was it a headfake? Was it a market move? And you kind of have to kick the tires. Some of it’s offshore too. I mean, there’s international bettors right? So there could be like a huge London bettor who bets in an offshore book that’s yeah, it’s illegal for us in the States, but not illegal for people overseas. So the market could move in a really respected sports book overseas. And then you kind of, the people at Caesars or whatever, DraftKings will just move accordingly because they want to stay on market. Because if you don’t stay on market, then you’ll just get one side of action wrong of one side.

Bryan
Gotcha. So you don’t have to say what it was, but have you headfaked before?

Doug
No, no, I don’t influence the market like that. I’ve done a few things along those lines, but not full blown headfakes. But I know how to snip them out.

Bryan
You see when they happen.

Doug
Yeah, like Thursday Night Football is a useful headfake for a lot of professional syndicates because the game day comes early in the week and NFL always has higher limits. So sometimes you’ll see a market move on Monday or Tuesday around pickem, like the favorite will go from one and a half to one and a half the other way and then it’ll come back the other way or something like that. That’s all just headfaking and try to manipulate the market certain ways.

Bryan
That’s pretty interesting.

Doug
Yeah. So it’s extremely nuanced. You got to have your ear to the ground and kind of figure out what’s going on, but they do exist. And, um, you know, I do know of a very well-known bettor. He used to do first half bet first because he always felt the first half line would move, not the game line. But if you bet the game line, then everything moves. You know, it’s commensurate, but if you bet the first half, they just think like, oh, there’s been the first half. And then later you can bet the game. So you can actually get two max bets down with value instead of just one. So he would bet the first half and then the game line somewhere else or something.

Bryan
Folks do not know that betting is this intricate. Betology. I feel much smarter, Doug, thank you.

Doug
That’s the idea.