Myth-Conceptions: only underdogs have betting value 🎥

The word “value” is frequently used in the sports betting space, and many solely attribute it to the payout of an underdog wager. However, Doug explains why that is incomplete.

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Sports betting is complicated and it can be intimidating as a new bettor. We’re here to help.

Mariah: Just call us the Mythbusters of the betting world. We are talking misconceptions about betting. This is a big one. Only underdogs have betting value. You see the minus line and you’re like getting scared away from it.

Doug: Right, especially with the money line, right? No, that’s a giant myth. Value is value, regardless of any shape or form. Now typically, we think of value in the form of an underdog. But all these money lines are converted to percentages. So a minus 200 favorite is converted to 67 % two thirds. And minus 300 is 75%. So if you think there’s better than, in this case, a 75 % chance, then there is said value on the favorite. Because often this happens when the betting public gets enamored with an underdog on a very popular game and they’ll just want to win a lot to risk it risk a little. So they’ll be instead of a five to one, there’ll just be a depressed money line, so to speak. And that’ll in turn create value on the favorite.

Doug: So, and that goes for a point spread too. Like let’s say the favorite has lost three in a row and the market is sort of not respecting them. And they’re, they’re only laying six, but you’re like, this line should be like nine, a focused favorite, IE a team off a loss. You’re going to get perceived value. So,

Doug: So, Value exists on both the underdogs and favorites, point spreads and money lines. And it’s all about the likelihood they have to cover likelihood, but there’s, it’s certainly market. Usually books air on the side of actually sometimes hanging value because they’re not going to lose sleep over a minus 300 favorite that should have been minus 400. They don’t want the big payouts on the underdog and the long shot money.

Doug: Value exists on both the underdogs and favorites, point spreads and money lines. And it’s all about the likelihood they have to cover likelihood. But there’s, it’s certainly market, usually books err on the side of actually sometimes hanging value because they’re not going to lose sleep over a minus 300 favorite that should have been minus 400. They don’t want the big payouts on the underdog and the long shot money.

Doug: So, but there’s sometimes big value on the favorite of a golf tournament, whether it’s Scottie Scheffler, it can be an index bet. It could be a head to head money line, like I was talking about any of those things, these prop markets, things like that. So you got to keep an eye out. And that’s why so much of this is shaped by the math guys, because their spreadsheet removes emotion and their numbers against the betting markets numbers is gives them just a guide and a tool. But that’s certainly a myth. There’s value on both sides, both underdog and favorite.

Mariah: When approaching a favorite, do you suggest increasing unit size because of the odds?

Doug: Right. So everyone has their different approach. It’s a very good question. So I always keep it clean, like in relation to a unit. So if I’m doing one unit on the minus 300, I’m really risking three units to win one. Now, sometimes if it’s minus 140 or something, people will just risk their one unit on the minus 140 and come out and change. It’s just all, but I think you just try to be consistent regardless. But I also, when I have an underdog plus 200 or plus two, I usually do like a third of a unit or something like that.

Doug: So it all depends how big the long shot is. Like I’ve made some bets over the years at a hundred to one when I thought it should have been like 20 to one, and I may just throw a small sprinkle or something along those lines. So it all depends on your appetite, but what it really does for those without a spreadsheet and stuff. Whatever your perceived edge is,and also like if you’re up that week, you press a little bit, there’s all these sort of other variables and factors, but you’re right though. It’s, it’s, it can get away from you. If you lay big lumber on a favorite that can add up and you’re, it’s, you’re not going to, you’re not going to win a lot laying $3, but sometimes there is betting value on those big money lines.

Mariah: Okay. So there you have it. There’s value on both sides. It’s not just the dog. Show some love to the favorites as well.