By Only Players Staff
Updated 6/26/24 5:04am ET
New York ace Luis Gil is coming off his worst outing, allowing seven earned runs to the Orioles. What should we expect against the Mets?
Photo Courtesy: Icon Sportswire
Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Handicapping narratives take on all shapes and sizes. Personally, especially as a sports fan, I love to analyze how a stud pitcher bounces back or responds to a slacking. And we saw that with Zach Wheeler, who’s in the NL CY Young discussion for the Phillies last week off an eight earned run performance, has a great outing last weekend, gets the win. Now we have Luis Gil of the Yankees coming off his worst outing of the season as the Yankees face the Mets in the Subway Series. Yanks minus 140, you’re over under eight and a half.
Right away, I don’t want to get involved with the Yanks because this was bound to happen, regression. They’ve lost five of six, seven of eight, finally coming back to earth some of this pitching. Now as for Gil, I’m still the believer in him. Look, there’s no shame in giving up, you know, having a bad outing against the Orioles, whether it’s seven earned, four earned, whatever it is, I’m okay with that. And I said the same a few starts prior when he gave up. What was it? Three earned and five and two thirds against the Dodgers. That lineup speaks for itself in the next outing. He went five innings and one earned. I don’t want to get involved in the money line here. Again, Yanks in a little bit of a tailspin. Sean Manaea doesn’t scare me of the Mets, but still I’d rather just focus on some props.
So what are Gil’s props here? Outs recorded 16 and a half under minus 120. Strikeouts six and a half. Heavy shade to the minus 145 on the under. Hits allowed four and a half ER, meaning earned runs.One and a half is all that. So I expect him to have a strong outing, but I’m a little uneasy going the over with the outs recorded. He hasn’t done this, hit this number in the last three starts. So even when he pitched well against the Red Sox, his pitch count was really high, over 100. They grinded him out for four walks and four hits. So what 16 and a half is, that is over five. It’s like, you know, six innings almost basically 16 is 18 outs. So, right. So 17 outs would be into the sixth inning. I think that’s going to be right around there. I’d actually bet under, even though I think he can pitch well. The problem is the Yanks bullpen has been very active the last couple of games. All these pitchers getting pulled early, Gerrit Cole got picked early on Tuesday. So I would, I would lean to the under strikeouts, but it’s pretty juicy at 145. The one I’m going to go with the outs recorded under 16 and a half.
Now, if the Mets are first pitch hitting and a bunch of ground balls, then I’ll lose the bet. But I think the numbers off more than I think he’ll is going to get touched up. I think he’ll respond, but I think it’s going to be right around that number. But I think we get five innings out of him. All things considered.
