By Only Players Staff
In sports betting, there are a lot of opportunities to make money. Overall, it’s elaborate and nuanced. Many TV shows and podcasts want to oversimplify things by offering a single Best Bet in a clean presentation but profitable sports betting is multi-dimensional. The tool belt includes futures, in-game wagering and market monetization. If one can anticipate the betting market accurately, one can put themself in a very favorable position to make money. And I think we have exactly that with the Steelers hosting the Chargers.
Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point home favorite for Sunday’s matchup. Here on Friday, the point spread is already -3 at some sportsbooks, after opening this week around -1.5. A lot of this line movement is centered around the uncertain health status of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who is nursing a high ankle sprain that he suffered in last Sunday’s win. He has received treatment throughout the week and missed most practices. If nothing else, the Chargers will keep their decision as private as possible within the league rules. Thus, we are relegated to speculation but sometimes that can be an advantage. My suggestion is to lean into the unknown and potential variance.
If Herbert is unable to play, there is a monumental dropoff to either of their backups, Taylor Heinicke or Easton Stick. The spread would move to around -7 or something in that neighborhood. So the question for me is what would the line be if Herbert starts, even though he won’t be 100%? I think it only goes back down a little, like to -2. So if you can get this at a relatively low moneyline or -2.5, you have to take that position and roll the dice a little bit because you’re going to be able to get out of your bet, if need be. And frankly, I still think it’s a good bet anyways.
So essentially, ALL THE UPSIDE exists on a Steelers bet RIGHT NOW, when you process the market and the best-case scenario versus worst-case scenario. Frankly, the Steelers defense is super physical. The Chargers are 2-0. They have the division rival Chiefs on deck and then their bye week. So conventional thought would suggest Harbaugh is going to be extremely cautious. Yes, Patrick Mahomes played the Super Bowl against the Tampa Bay Bucs with a similar injury, but that was the Super Bowl. This is Week 3.
And from a handicapping perspective, are the Chargers really that good? I have my doubts about this offense because they only beat the Las Vegas Raiders and then the Carolina Panthers. So the proof’s still out. But with the Steelers, you know what you’re going to get. You have an effective game manager with mobility in Justin Fields. You have an excellent defense with a pocket wrecker in TJ Watt. So I think the right side is Pittsburgh, even if Herbert plays, but you could REALLY put yourself into a massively advantageous position if Herbert is in fact ruled out.
