By Chewy and Lewy
St. Louis @ NY Islanders (12:30 pm ET)
PICK: St. Louis Moneyline
Why?
Short answer? Islanders suck but read on.
St. Louis- Game 1 of back to back on the road (both early games)
Stats To Consider
STL Strengths: #2 PP (27%), #5 PK (85%), #4 GF (186), #5 GA (139)
STL Concerns: #18 FO NYI Strengths: #3 GA (132), #8 FO, #8 PK (83%)
NYI Strengths: #3 GA (132), #8 FO, #8 PK (83%)
NYI Concerns: #23 PP (17%), #30 GF (124)
STL Stuff
St. Louis has won 62% of their games straight up. They have a strong record at home winning 19-8, however, they are 12-12 on the road. Back to Back G1 on the road, they are 1-3. STL hasn’t dominated against the Metro on the road going 1-2 and only 2-1 at home. There’s no edge in O/U for the season, STL is 23 Over to 24 Under overall and 10 Over to 12 Under on the road.
STL has seen great success from their backup Husso, so if STL goes away from Binnington there’s strength in net.
NY Islanders Stuff
NYI have only won 10 of their 24 home games and are 1-8 when a home dog. As expected, NYI this season have 19 Overs compared to 27 Unders and at home, they are 6 overs to 17 under. NYI is 1-3 against the Central at home, however, they are 3-2 on the road. NYI doesn’t play great on Saturdays going 4-7, 2-3 at home. NYI did however win their first Sunday game all season getting rid of the goose egg and are now 1-5 on Sundays and they did it on the road.
Research
ManUp/ManDown Chances
NYI are #32 on PP Opportunities (126 PPO/22 PPG), STL #16 (152 PPO/41 PPG)
NYI are #32 on PP Opp Against (120 PPOA/21 PPGA), STL #15 (153 PPOA/23 PPGA)
STL is tied for 2nd with 7 Shorthanded goals, Isles have 2
NYI are tied for 3rd having given up 6 Shorthanded goals, STL has only 3
NYI are taking 9 min of penalties per game, their opponents are taking 8.4 pen min/game
STL is taking 8.2 min of penalties per game, their opponents are taking 7.7 pen min/game
Possession Quality
STL has the 2nd best (+25) in taking advantage of scoring opportunities, NYI is in the middle of the pack (+6).
Head to Head
4 of the last 6 have gone into OT/SO. NYI have won 4 of the last 6. 4 of the last 6 have been unders.
Nashville @ San Jose (8:00pm ET)
PICK: Nashville Moneyline
Why?
Nashville is solid on the road against the Pacific.
San Jose- Game 1 of back to back (home-away)
Previous Game: SJ 1 @ NASH 3 (Oct 26) [Again: Apr 12]
Stats to consider
NASH Strengths: #8 PP
NASH Concerns: None
SJ Strengths: #2 PK, #9 FOSJ
SJ Concerns: #18 PP, #24 GF, #21 GA
Saros is a Vezina possibility and has carried the load for NASH.
Research
NASH is 15-13 on the road this season. They’re 5-2 on the road against the Pacific Division and an attractive 19 overs to 9 unders on the road. In those 7 games against Pacific teams on the road, they’ve won by 2 or more only twice.
SJ is 12-14 at home and is 6-10 as a Home Dog. SJ has 12 overs to 14 unders at home. The only concerning stat is SJ is 4-2 against the Central at home but 6-6 overall. In the 10 SJ loses at home, they’ve lost by more than one in 8 of those games.
Boston @ Columbus (7:00pm ET)
PICK: Boston Moneyline
Why?
Boston is good on the road and Columbus has a losing record on G2s of B2Bs.
Columbus- Game 2 of back to back at home
Stats to consider
BOS Strengths: #7 PP, #8 PK, #3 FO, #7 GA
BOS Concerns: #19 GF
CBJ Strengths: #12 PK, #10 GF
CBJ Concerns: #26 PP, #17 FO, #31 GA
Goaltending will most likely make the difference here. BOS is one of the few teams that have a reliable tandem. Because of back to back Game 2 for CBJ, Korpisalo most likely will be in goal and he hasn’t been able to keep the puck out of the net
Research
BOS is 14-10 on the road but 10-3 as a road favorite (be careful if they end up being a dog). No good stats on O/U via BOS. BOS has struggled against the Metro all season, they’re 3-5 on the road and 3-4 at home.
CBJ is barely above .500 at home with a mediocre 14-11 record. They’re 2-3 in Game 2 of B2B games at home. As a home dog, CBJ is 9-9 but as a rare home favorite, they’re 5-2. So again pay attention to who ends up getting the edge. CBJ is a substantial 33 overs vs 16 unders and 16 over against only 6 unders at home. The Bluejackets are 3-3 at home against the Atlantic at home. If Korpisalo is in the net for CBJ, keep in mind that he’s 2-6 at home and he hasn’t started a game for CBJ since Jan 31 because of an injury.
More on Chewy and Lewy here.
