By Chewy and Lewy
I cashed a 6 team parlay ticket on hockey overs. Are we the only ones that see nothing but overs this year in hockey? Lewy and I have looked at this phenomenon and have identified a few factors that may be driving this trend. We do know a few years back the league cut the size of the goalie pads down and this did lead to the expected outcome of more goals, though we have not seen any such announcement this year. So what’s leading to the scoring? We think of a few factors that aren’t readily quantifiable. One, as players’ safety becomes more of a priority, big hits are becoming less frequent. Think in terms of how the NFL is protecting their QBs. Knowing you aren’t going to get de-cleated by a 280 lb linebacker when you are scrambling for your life lends itself to positive offensive outcomes. Likewise, we are seeing super fast and talented NHL forwards are possibly scoring more as crushing hits in the middle of the ice are becoming less frequent. Second, there has been a real push by defensive players to become more offensive-minded when appropriate. And third, the cross-checking and interference fouls are being called more rapidly than ever before in our estimation, which is allowing offensive players to park themselves in the crease, leading to more scoring. Regardless of whether any of these observations are actual factors, what is undeniable are overs hitting at a very high rate. We are going to keep an eye on this now and during the playoff season to see if there are any real leans we all can take advantage of to get some dubs. Lewy also has a theory on first period plays that we are tracking and he will write about soon.
