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First Round Upsets to Target in March Madness

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By Larry Rupp

March Madness is here! The bracket has been released and the 68-team field is now officially set as first round action is set to get underway on Thursday, March 17. Of course, it’ll be another year of exciting buzzer beaters and lovable cinderella teams.

With that being said, here is an upset to target in each region of the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. All odds are according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

West Region: Davidson (10) over Michigan State (7)

This is the closest spread of any 7 vs. 10 matchup on the schedule and for good reason. Davidson heads into this game as 1.5-point underdogs and has the depth to take Michigan State down. Four Wildcats players put up double-digit scoring marks this season, while the team averaged just 9.8 turnovers per contest overall (No. 12 in NCAA).

Head coach Bob McKillop’s team also ranks ahead of the Spartans in both points per game and points allowed per game. Meanwhile, head coach Tom Izzo’s team stumbled to the finish line by losing six of its last 10 games of the season. Gabe Brown was the only player to be named to an All-Big Ten team on a roster that failed to live up to expectations. Take Davidson here.

East Region: Virginia Tech (11) over Texas (6)

Virginia Tech may be one of the most underrated squads entering this year’s tournament. The Hokies went on a historical run to win the ACC Conference Tournament, taking down three other NCAA tournament teams in the process (Notre Dame, North Carolina & Duke). This is a team that shoots 38.6% from three-point range (T-No. 7 in NCAA) and is led by a couple of seniors in Keve Aluma and Storm Murphy.

That’s a recipe for disaster for Texas. Head coach Chris Beard’s team makes a living off of playing tenacious defense, but has been vulnerable from beyond the arc. In fact, the Longhorns rank tied for No. 77 in the country when it comes to opponent three-point percentage (31.8%). Roll with the hot team here and take the Hokies as 1-point underdogs.

South Region: UAB (12) over Houston (5)

This would be a truly massive upset given UAB heads into a matchup against Houston as 8.5-point underdogs. There’s a lot to like about the Blazers’ chances here, though. Guard Jordan “Jelly” Walker made himself a household name by averaging 31.0 points and 5.0 rebounds during UAB’s run to a Conference USA Tournament title. It’s worth noting the Blazers check in with the nation’s 20th-best offensive efficiency mark, too.

While Houston has been widely regarded as a championship contender all season long, they head into the tournament nowhere near full health. The Cougars will be without star guard Marcus Sasser after he was ruled out for the season with a toe injury. That leaves Kelvin Sampson’s team in danger of being on the wrong end of a first round upset.

Midwest Region: South Dakota State (13) over Providence (4)

No one in the country wanted to draw South Dakota State in the first round. That is because the Jackrabbits own America’s longest winning streak at 21 games and shoot lights out from beyond the arc. Head coach Eric Henderson’s team owns an three-point percentage of 44.2% (No. 1 in NCAA) and averages 85.5 points per game, which is a mark that trails only the No. 1 seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs.

That is not good news for the Providence Friars given they rank outside the top 100 in statistical categories like defensive efficiency and personal fouls per game. Head coach Ed Cooley’s team will have to play one of its best defensive games of the season to pull out the win here. Don’t be surprised if the Jackrabbits go from being 2-point underdogs to being small favorites before tipoff.

Picture Credit: Shutterstock

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