Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

By Ryan Bologna

The 148th running of the Kentucky Derby will take place this weekend (May 7), which means we know the horses, jockeys, trainers, and post positions. Let’s take a look into how all of that plays into the betting odds for the race.

The Favorites

Zandon

Odds: 3-1

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Zandon is the favorite with 3-1 odds, starting from the 10th post position. Brown is searching for his first Kentucky Derby win as a trainer, previously winning a triple crown event with Cloud Computing at the Preakness Stakes in 2017. The closest Brown has come to winning “The Run For The Roses” was in 2018, when he finished second with Good Magic.

This isn’t Prat’s first time at the Derby — he won the Kentucky Derby in controversial fashion in 2019 onboard Country House after Maximum Security was disqualified due to an in-race foul. Prat won the Grade 1 Blue Grass with Zandon back in April 2022 so it makes sense that Zandon is viewed as the favorite coming into the event.

Epicenter

Odds: 7-2

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Coming in right behind Zandon is Epicenter with 7-2 odds, starting from the third post position. Asmussen is looking for his first Kentucky Derby win — he has won the Preakness Stakes twice in 2007 and 2009, and the Belmont Stakes once in 2016. Epicenter might be the best shot Asmussen has had to get his first Kentucky Derby win.

Veteran jockey Rosario will be running his 11th Kentucky Derby with Epicenter. Rosario is searching for his first derby win since the 2013 derby with Orb. Rosario has also won the Belmont Stakes twice in 2014 and 2019 so there is plenty of experience in triple crown events.

Messier

Odds: 8-1

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: John Velazquez

Yakteen is coming to the derby with top contender Messier, who used to be trained by Hall Of Famer Bob Baffert. Baffert is currently serving a 90-day suspension due to Medina Spirit failing a postrace drug test after winning the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Messier’s odds are set at 8-1 from the sixth post position. Yakteen is also the trainer for Taiba, who has odds set at 12-1.

Velazquez is back in the Kentucky Derby once again. The three-time winner (2011, 2017, and 2020) will look for his fourth win this weekend. Velazquez rode Medina Spirit last year, so it is a potential redemption story. It will be Velazquez’s 24th career run.

A Longshot Pick

Charge It

Odds: 20-1

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

If there is one longshot that is worth a look, it’s Charge It in the eighth post position. Odds are set at 20-1, so the Pletcher-trained horse will need some luck, like any horse does, to win the Kentucky Derby. Pletcher has won the Derby twice (2010 and 2017) so it would not be a complete shock if Charge It took home the victory.

Saez will be looking for his first Kentucky Derby win with Charge It. Saez’s best career finish in the Derby was last year, when he finished third. This will be Saez’s ninth try at the derby.

Photo Credit: Thomas Kelley

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