By Ryan Bologna
It’s the 4th of July weekend and that means one thing, Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo will look to continue their dominance in the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest at Coney Island. The event is arguably one of the most disturbing shown on television each year, but people just can’t look away. Chestnut and Sudo are in leagues of their own, so it is not wise to bet significant money against them, but there are still some good wagers to place for the event.
Joey Chestnut: Over 74.5 Hot Dogs Eaten
Chestnut was defeated once in this event. Matt Stonie, the man who took him down in 2015 is not competing this year. With the lack of competition, Chestnut is essentially competing against himself. He will aim to break his own record of 76 hot dogs eaten, which was set last year and broke his previous record of 75 which was set in 2020.
The value is not the greatest, as the odds for the over are set at -140, but why would you watch the hot dog eating contest and not root for Chestnut to break the world record? There is no reason to expect that he won’t threaten to break his own record again. Whether you are betting for logical and recreational purposes, take the over.
Miki Sudo and Joey Chestnut: Under 122.5 Hot Dogs Eaten
While the over is likely the best bet for Chestnut alone, bettors should take the under for this combined total. Sudo sat out last year’s event due to her pregnancy, and Chestnut will likely eat around 75 hot dogs. That means Sudo would need to eat around 48. She reached 48 ½ last time she competed in 2020, but only reached 40 or more one other time. She needs to reach a number that she has not consistently achieved for the over to hit. Given Sudo’s track record and that she didn’t compete last year, the under is the best choice at -115 odds.
Men’s Outright Winner: The Field
This is purely a value play and the only bet against Chestnut that is worth considering. He will almost certainly win, but 2015 proved that the unthinkable could happen given the right circumstances. Taking the field gives you the ability to win your bet without needing to guess the exact person to pull the upset. The odds are set at +1000, so even a small bet has the potential for a big payout.
Photo Credit: a katz
