By Ryan Bologna
We’ve dug through the history of college football and found some of the most memorable cases of buy games backfiring. However, the vast majority of these games go exactly as expected. Outside of maybe the NFL preseason, these are arguably some of the craziest games to bet on. You never know who is going to play by the 4th quarter when you’re on the edge of your seat wondering if the team will cover a spread that is over 40 points. Is it worth the nerves? Let’s find out.
The best-case scenario for a bettor is if they are familiar with the team from a small school or weak program. For example, I am a UConn graduate and know that they’re especially weak. When the Huskies were 47.5-point underdogs on the road against Michigan in the 2022 season, I knew Michigan would likely cover. The Wolverines ended up winning 59-0.
However, most people don’t know much about the small programs. Are they just going to roll over, or are they feisty enough to hold their own when the big program removes its starters? The best way to find this out is to look at the schedule of the small school. If the given school was blown out recently, don’t bet on them covering the spread. Otherwise, maybe put a little bit on the small school covering.
Another important aspect of this is knowing the philosophy of the coach from the stronger program. Some are more willing to take their foot off the gas pedal than others. That could lead to a backdoor cover. Of course, you have to make sure the small school is capable of performing against the big school’s backups.
This isn’t a simple process, and you definitely shouldn’t bet on just any buy game. However, sports betting is all about finding value. If you have more knowledge of certain teams than most, use that to your advantage. Don’t just disregard buy games. There could be some hidden value bets for you if you do your research.
Photo Credit: Chad Robertson Media
