By Ryan Bologna
If it seems like scoring in fantasy football is way down, it’s because it is. This actually might be good news if your team isn’t performing well, as it gives you a built-in excuse for not drafting well. However, there are some interesting implications, and you can use this knowledge to your advantage when placing your bets.
Just in case you think this is a slight dropoff in offensive production, take a look here:
Something about football feels off, right? Sluggish?
That's because the first 6 weeks of fantasy scoring are the lowest in THIRTEEN YEARS. Down 22% from last year
We're seeing it in the primetime games. There's a severe shortage of consistently high-powered offenses
— Matt DiSorbo (@datavizuals) October 18, 2022
Something of note is there are just not a lot of truly great teams in the NFL right now. There are only three that come to mind. The Bills and Chiefs are obvious, and they have the two best quarterbacks in the NFL, so it would make sense that those teams score a lot. The Eagles are also up there with a stacked roster. After that, even the teams with good records aren’t what you would think of as offensive juggernauts. The Giants are one of the big surprises, and they are a very run-dominant team that hasn’t scored over 30 points yet this season. The Vikings have a bit more punch on offense, but they aren’t lighting up the scoreboard either.
There are some teams in the middle of the pack that have disappointed as well. The Bengals had a huge game in New Orleans on offense, but they haven’t lived up to expectations on that side of the ball otherwise. Another example is the Packers. They lost Davante Adams, but most people didn’t expect them to struggle to score as much as they have. The Rams and Cardinals could also be part of this category.
So how can all of this play into your betting strategies? If you really think about it, fantasy football goes hand-in-hand with player props. Betting the under might not be the most fun experience, but you’ll want to take the under on player props more often than you might have in the past.
Some players to look out for are ones who have name recognition but haven’t been involved in their offense as much as you thought they would be. An example coming into the year is Falcons tight end, Kyle Pitts. He has been disappointing this year, so the totals for him are probably set lower than they were at the start of the year, but this is still a good example. Pitts was the 4th pick in the 2021 draft, and he just hasn’t seen the targets this year. Whether it’s the Falcons not forcing anything dangerous because of the quarterback play of Marcus Mariota or it’s Pitts himself not playing well, the under for his yardage has probably hit a lot this season.
This type of strategy could also benefit you when it comes to the general over/under as well. It can be useful to identify teams that have struggled on offense and are not showing signs of getting better. The Buccaneers could be a good example. Everyone knows the backstory of what is going on with Tom Brady, but their offense has not performed to expectations so far this season and that’s a fact. To drive the point home, if you had taken the under on every Buccanneers game so far this year you would be 6-2.
The NFL looks a bit different this year, and you should use that knowledge. Whether it’s player props or just regular over/under bets, find the trends and take advantage of them.
Photo Credit: Tada Images
