By Donny Black
Big news coming out of the NFL Draft is the meteoric rise in the stock of Anthony Richardson.
Former quarterback at the University of Florida, Richardson is listed at 6’ 4” and 234 pounds, has a cannon for an arm, and runs a reported 4.48 40-yard dash. Over the last two days, Richardson has seen his odds go from +10000 to +700 to become the First Overall Pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He is also listed as low as +500 to be the first quarterback off the board at some shops. The craziest part about this huge steam move is that this is coming prior to the NFL Combine. Typically, a player has a stellar combine/pro day and the buzz causes a player’s stock to rise to warrant a move in the price.
So what is the cause of all this mayhem? Two words…Mock Drafts. Chris Trapasso released his most recent mock draft for CBS Sports and it had Richardson going first overall to the Indianapolis Colts via trade from the Chicago Bears. Now is this valid information or could it be inducing shock value for clicks? I’m going with the latter. I have to hand it to Chris — releasing a mock draft causing this much movement in the market is impressive. However, this is pure speculation.
The combine, pro-days, and interviews haven’t even begun yet. I understand the concept of general managers loving physical specimens and thinking they can mold them into a superstar. However, this is a quarterback we are talking about here. We have seen Bryce Young and CJ Stroud play. We watched the film. They are levels above Richardson in decision-making and accuracy. I get that a team could end up reaching and taking a chance on Richardson, thinking that he has the highest ceiling, but trading away major draft capital to acquire the number one pick on a “risk/reward” QB prospect is borderline insanity.
If you ended up getting a great price on Richardson before the huge steam move, congratulations! This is the NFL Draft and honestly, anything can happen. However, do not place a wager on Richardson now thinking it’s a great bet. All the “value” has been extracted and a wager at +700 absolutely should not be made on AR.
There is some good news to come out of this for other players. This huge movement has increased the prices of other prospects. Stroud went from +200 to +500 to be the first QB off the board and is now in bet territory. Also, Jalen Carter has seen his odds increase to +800 to be the first pick and as I wrote in a previous article, this will be the Bears’ pick if they end up sticking in the top spot.
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