By Trevor Roughan
Boston Red Sox – Over 78.5 Wins (-115)
The Red Sox haven’t surprised many this season. Boston’s pitching has struggled mightily thus far, but its lineup has kept the team in most games. In all of MLB, Boston ranks third in total runs and 26th in ERA.
Boston currently holds a 12-12 record, which puts it on pace to exceed its projected win total of 78.5. There are reasons to believe the Red Sox can both uphold this pace, as well as incrementally improve throughout the season. For one, Boston’s best pitcher has been one of their worst so far. That’ll certainly change.
After four starts, Chris Sale has pitched to an 8.22 ERA, only winning against the lowly Detroit Tigers. However, Sale is coming off a litany of injuries that have sidelined him for the majority of the last three seasons; his fastball is gaining velocity with every appearance, and he recently started a game in which he threw six innings, struck out eleven, and only allowed one earned run. Given Sale’s track record, I’m confident that the Red Sox will again be able to depend on him in the near future.
Despite the Red Sox’s great hitting early on, many players aren’t quite pulling their weight. Three lineup regulars are batting under the Mendoza Line, while Japanese import, Masataka Yoshida, hasn’t yet produced consistently. Yoshida is 7-17 with some pop in his previous four games, indicating that he might be getting more comfortable with MLB pitching. Even if others continue to struggle, Yoshida beginning to hit his stride is massive for a Boston lineup that’s already been great.
All things considered, Boston’s bullpen has shined. Relief pitching has been the Red Sox’s Achilles’ heel in recent years, and the same cannot be said for 2023 — their closer, Kenley Jansen, has not yet allowed a run while new addition Chris Martin has been lights out. John Schreiber is nasty per usual and Richard Bleier’s numbers would look far better if it weren’t for a four-ER outing versus Tampa Bay. Boston’s pen lacks depth, but now projects to be a strength for the first time in years.
Keep an eye on the Red Sox.
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