By Kenny Burgess
We’re a little bit over a third of the way through the 2023 MLB season and the race for the season-long individual awards is heating up. Only Players took a look to see if the current favorites for these awards are in a strong position or if some of the underdogs have a chance of catching up.
National League MVP
The Favorite
As it sits right now, Ronald Acuna Jr. of the Atlanta Braves is a heavy favorite to be the NL MVP at -105 and rightfully so — he’s in the midst of a historic season, and on pace for over 30 home runs and 70 stolen bases. No one has ever accomplished the feat in the same season in baseball history so if Acuna can do it first, he’s a lock for the most valuable player award. Acuna is also currently ranked top five in the National League in hits, doubles, OPS, and SLG. The Braves also have a record of 40-25, which is good enough for the best record in the National League. Acuna is having a historic season thus far and combined with team success, he is currently a slam dunk to bring home the MVP.
Dark Horse
If not Acuna, then who? As it sits right now, it would be hard for anyone to overtake Acuna, but the most likely suitor is his former teammate, Freddie Freeman of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Freeman’s odds to win the MVP are +480 and I see him as the most likely threat to take down Acuna. Freeman has been absolutely dominant this season and leads the National League in OPS at .999 and doubles with 24, while also ranking top five in hits, SLG, and average.
While I would still lean towards Acuna as no one has ever seen his combination of power and speed, if he suffers an injury or slows down his pace, Freeman is the next best bet. These could be the best Freeman’s odds get so if you’re looking for value, it might not be the worst idea to hop on the Freeman train right now.
Final Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. (-105)
American League MVP
The Favorite
Every year that Shohei Ohtani laces them up, he will be the favorite for the MVP award. This year has been no different for the two-way Japanese star, who is the favorite to bring home the AL MVP at -200 odds. At the plate, Ohtani has 18 home runs, has driven in 46 runs, and has an impressive OPS of .930. Ohtani has been just as impressive on the mound recording 102 strikeouts and holding opposing batters to an average of just .172. Ohtani is not only the lone two-way player in the game, but he is elite on both sides of the ball. No one can match the value Ohtani brings to a team when he is on and right now he is the clear favorite for the MVP in the American League.
Dark Horse
Aaron Judge is currently on the injured list, but it appears he’ll be returning soon and if the reigning MVP can return to the Yankees lineup soon, he might be more in play than some think. When Judge has been on the field this season, he has arguably been the best hitter in the league. So far, Judge has only appeared in 49 games, but he still leads the American League with 19 home runs and leads all of baseball with an OPS of 1.078. After winning the MVP last season, Judge has somehow been better when on the field this season. If Judge can continue his pace upon his return, he could make a late push to repeat as the American League MVP. His odds currently sit at +750 and it could see bettors getting a big payday if they feel comfortable that Judge will return soon.
Final Pick: Shohei Ohtani (-200)
National League Cy Young
The Favorite
Right now, Spence Strider is the favorite for the National League Cy Young award at +230. Strider leads all of baseball with 121 strikeouts and is the prototypical power pitcher with his average fastball velocity of 97 mph. The Atlanta Braves ace is predominantly a two-pitch pitcher as he throws his fastball/slider 94 percent of the time. Strider definitely deserves to be at the top of the list when talking about Cy Young candidates, but his 3.79 ERA is a bit higher than a typical winner and it leaves the door open for some other candidates.
Dark Horses
This award is much more up for grabs than the previous ones and I have two names circled as others who could be vying for the award by season’s end.
Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has had a fantastic season and is second behind Strider in odds for the Cy Young award at +270. He has 93 strikeouts and boasts a record of 7-2 for the surprising Diamondbacks, and Gallen’s curveball has been one of the nastiest pitches in baseball this season, producing a whiff rate of 44.8 percent. Gallen has been trending in the right direction for the past couple of seasons now and this could be the year he takes home the award for the best pitcher in the National League.
My long shot who I really like for this award is the Chicago Cubs’ Marcus Stroman; his odds are currently sixth-best to win the award at +2000 despite leading the National League in ERA at 2.42. Stroman is known as a pitch-to-contact pitcher, which leaves him with 73 strikeouts. While his strikeout numbers don’t jump off the page, Stroman leads the National League with a 1.04 WHIP and has been a workhorse for the Cubs, already throwing 85.2 innings this season. Leading the league in both ERA and WHIP while being a +2000 underdog makes me think Stroman might be one of the best value picks in all of sports right now.
Final Pick: Marcus Stroman (+2000)
American League Cy Young
The Favorite
Everything appears to be going right for the Tampa Bay Rays this season and it’s no different when it comes to their ace Shane McClanahan, who is the favorite to win the American League Cy Young at +260. McClanahan has an impressive 2.18 ERA with 92 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.11. The left-handed pitcher has put himself in prime position to take home his first Cy Young award and if he continues at this pace, he should win.
Dark Horse
If someone is to overtake McClanahan, I like it to be another left-hander in, Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros. Valdez is currently tied for the second-best odds with Gerrit Cole at +600. The Astros let Verlander walk in the offseason thinking that Valdez was ready to take over as the ace of their staff and it appears to be the right move so far. Valdez has a minuscule 2.36 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, but seems to be hitting his stride — in his last seven starts, he had a 2.20 ERA and hasn’t given up a run in two of his last four starts. Coming off his dominant postseason last year, I like Valdez to continue to dominate.
Final Pick: Framber Valdez (+600)
National League Rookie of the Year
The Favorite
Corbin Carroll is putting together an amazing rookie season and is the runaway favorite for the Rookie of the Year award at -300. Carroll is the biggest favorite of any player to bring home an award due to the fact he’s top five in AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, and RBI among all rookies. At this point, it looks like the only thing that could bring Carroll down would be an injury.
Dark Horses
If Carroll completely fell off or got hurt, there are a couple of players who might have an outside chance at this award. Last week the number one prospect in baseball, Elly De La Cruz, burst onto the scene for the Cincinnati Reds. In just six games, De La Cruz has hit .364 and has impressed with his rare combination of power and speed. He might just not have enough time to make up ground on Carroll, but De La Cruz’s odds currently sit at +700, which makes him the second favorite.
Another option if Carroll should falter is the Mets’ young catcher, Francisco Alvarez, who was known for his elite power before arriving in the Majors and he hasn’t disappointed, hitting 12 home runs and his SLG percentage is .543 in just 44 games. Both of those numbers only trail Carroll and make his +3500 odds slightly enticing.
Final Pick: Corbin Carroll (-300)
American League Rookie of the Year
The Favorite
The current favorite to be the best first-year player in the American League is headlined by Masataka Yoshida and his odds to win the award are currently set at +210. Yoshida is 29 years old, but is playing in his first season in the MLB since moving from Japan. Yoshida’s transition to the MLB has been seamless as he is leading the Red Sox in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Yoshida is also ranked top five among qualified AL Rookies in all of those categories, and his age and experience gives me confidence that he can continue this pace over the course of the season.
Dark Horse
Josh Jung of the surprising Texas Ranger is the second favorite and his odds are +260 at the moment. The young third baseman leads all AL rookies with 13 home runs and 39 runs batted in. Jung also has an impressive OPS of .841, which trails Yoshida by only .01, not to mention the Rangers have the second-best record in the AL at 41-23. If Jung keeps hitting how he is and the Rangers keep winning, he is very much alive to win this award.
Final Pick: Masataka Yoshida (+210)
Photo credit: Atlanta Braves’ Instagram
