By Kenny Burgess
The field of eight has been finalized and there is a mix of derby veterans and newcomers. The 2023 Home Run Derby will take place at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Monday, Jul. 10 at 8 p.m. ET. We’re going to break down all the contestants, their odds, and what their path to the title would look like. I’ll also give you my pick to come out on top this year and a dark horse to keep an eye on.
Pete Alonso +250
Pete Alonso enters this contest as the betting favorite and with good reason. Alonso looks to join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only three-time winner (Alonso also won in 2019 and 2021). The Mets’ first baseman is the second seed and comes into the derby with 25 home runs recorded so far this season. Alonso has some of the best power in the league and has plenty of experience, so the lights shouldn’t be too bright for him. Alonso has both the longest and the hardest home run tracked by Statcast of any 2023 Home Run Derby contestant, and he has hit 174 total home runs in his three derbies, ranking No. 1 in the history of the contest.
Alonso’s first-round matchup is against hometown favorite Julio Rodriguez, who actually knocked Alonso out of the derby last year, but we’ll see how the home crowd affects the Seattle youngster. I like Alonso to respond this year and take down Rodriguez in the first round.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +350
Vladimir Guerrero enters as the second-biggest favorite to bring home the crown in only his second derby appearance. Guerrero has 13 home runs on the season, despite leading the American League in hard-hit balls. Guerrero also put on a show the last time he was in the derby, hitting a derby-best 91 home runs in three rounds before falling to Alonso in the finals. This experience combined with Guerrero’s raw power makes him a major threat in this event.
Guerrero will be up against Dodgers star outfielder Mookie Betts in the first round. Betts isn’t built like your typical derby winner but he’s never been in the event before so the former MVP could have a big night. In the end, I like Guerrero to advance and could set up a marquee matchup with Alonso in the second round.
Julio Rodríguez +450
As mentioned earlier, Rodríguez will be the hometown favorite, as the Seattle star gets to hit at his own ballpark. Only three players have won a home run derby in their home park — Bryce Harper at Nationals Park (2019), Todd Frazier at Great American Ball Park (2015), and Ryne Sandberg at Wrigley Field (1990). Rodríguez put on a show on his way to the finals last year, becoming the only player with multiple 30-homer rounds in a derby. Like Guerrero, Rodríguez only has 13 home runs so far this season, but if last year’s performance tells us anything, we shouldn’t count out last year’s AL Rookie of the Year.
Rodríguez will have his hands full with Alonso in the first round and could benefit from Seattle support, but in the end, I think Alonso will be too much for him to handle this time around.
Luis Robert Jr. +550
Luis Robert Jr. enters the derby as the top seed with 25 home runs already this season. This will be his first time in the event, but Robert has some serious pop — he’s one of two contestants, along with Alonso, who’s hit a 480-plus-foot home run, according to Statcast tracking. Being the first seed could help Robert as he’ll go second in every round and will only have to hit one more home run than his opponent. This could help Robert preserve energy and give him the stamina to make a deep run.
Robert will be matched up with Orioles All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman in the first round. Rutschman is a great hitter, but isn’t known for his pure power. I think this matchup favors Robert and I like him to at least get out of the first round. Robert’s side of the bracket also doesn’t feature any of the previous derby contestants, which could also play to his advantage.
Adolis Garcia +550
Adolis Garcia was the last participant to be announced and enters the derby with 22 home runs. Since entering the league, Garcia has been a prolific power threat in his two full seasons, hitting 31 and 27 homers in one season, respectively. Garcia has never competed in a derby, but he checks a lot of the boxes when looking for a potential winner.
Garcia will face off with the Rays’ Randy Arozarena in the first round. Both are solid power hitters, but neither has any experience in the event. With this being a four vs. five matchup, it comes as no surprise that I see this as a true toss-up, but I do think the winner of this matchup has the potential to make a deep run.
Randy Arozarena +800
Randy Arozarena is a first-time participant and will also be a starting outfielder for the American League. After finishing with 20 home runs in each of the last two seasons, Arozarena already has 16 on the season and is on pace to set a new single-season career high. In his short major league career, Arozarena has shined the brightest in big moments, most noticeably his historic postseason and incredible showing at this year’s World Baseball Classic. Arozarena appears to be at his best when everyone is watching, and this makes me think he might cherish the spotlight of the home run derby.
Like his first-round opponent, Garcia, I think Arozarena could fare well in this contest due to their side of the bracket being a bit weaker. I’m going to pick Arozarena in this matchup and love his value at +800 to bring home the crown.
Mookie Betts +1500
Mookie Betts is second to last in betting odds, despite being the third seed and having 23 home runs already this season. Betts is one of the MLB’s best players, but he isn’t known as being a pure power hitter. Betts is also matched up with Guerrero in the first round and if he makes it through, he would have to beat either Alonso or Rodríguez just to reach the finals. I don’t think Betts will be able to beat Guerrero in the first round or go on to win the whole thing.
Adley Rutschman +2500
Rutschman is having a fantastic season and enters the event having hit 11 home runs so far this season. Rutschman is a switch-hitter and no switch-hitter has ever won the Home Run Derby outright, so it will be interesting to see if he can change that. Rutschman is a fantastic player, but he has only 24 career home runs in his short career, so I don’t see him coming out on top in Seattle.
Final Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +350
Dark Horse: Randy Arozarena +800
My full bracket will be available below:
Photo credit: Pete Alonso’s Instagram
