By Only Players Staff
Updated 9/20/23 12:49pm ET
An old gambling adage states that home-field advantage is worth three points to an NFL point spread. Doug explains why that is no longer the case.
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Noor: it is time for myth conceptions that’s right myth conceptions not misconceptions because in the world of betting there’s people that are superstitious and myths come up and misconceptions come up and that’s where we break them down in myth conceptions now this one goes goes way back all the way to the 90s uh home field advantage is worth three points to the NFL spread this is something that I even hear to this day
Doug: yeah
Noor: is this still true or is this a mythconceptions
Doug: It’s a giant misconception
Noor: really okay
Doug: and it’s understandable because there was a time where it was and the betting market so that means odds makers and professional bers have just gotten a lot smarter okay and you cannot just do blind simple math and say oh the home team slap on an extra three points
Noor: right
Doug: because key numbers in NFL betting are really all that matters so three is the most common margin of victory since since the field goal extra point distance went back right a handful of years ago about 15% of games are decided by exactly three points now why three it’s all the units of scoring a touchdown and a field goal are three and seven so we’re going to get those outcomes those margins of Victory so the key numbers which means the most common margins of defeat three, ten, seven, six, four, fourteen so all the football numbers right so moving through those numbers is so valuable you cannot just do that and so they’ve realized it actually is around 1.1 on the high end sometimes it’s 0.8 like the Rams at home because they’re it’s basically the visiting team pseudo home game every time in LA so they’re like 0.8 so like I that’s what the math guys tell me the guys who do the projections of their modeling they say it’s between 0.8 and 1.1 and 1.1 would be like the Chiefs at home in January in a playoff game
Noor: now that is a drastic difference from the point so what is attributing to this is the variables are changing
Doug: so it’s really so much obviously it starts with the key numbers but in general just overall like players have healthier existences the nutrition the fitness of travel in flying cross country is not that big of a deal also improved travel conditions right uh they’re not flying Charter and and they’re not carrying their own bags again the facilities and everything around them the training the the science that the teams have helps them adjust to whatever obstacles are typically there on top of that technology quarterbacks with the with
the tech and and the helmet and the communication devices with the head coach like going on the road with the craziness is not as big of a factor and also just the advancement of hand signals and things like that in addition to the technological advances for the
communication they just they just know how to and and so much of offenses or read the situation so it’s like it’s an option route not the actual old school football you pitch it but a receiver will run and then he’ll have the option based on which way the defensive back is shading so it’s a lot of read and react okay and not communication based with the crowd noise being a factor and things like that so overall everyone’s just sort of advancing
Noor: kind catching up
Doug: yeah so the gap is narrow in fact eve though the market knows this and adjust road teams have been covering more the last handful of years so the market hasn’t adjusted 100% right but it’s definitely like no more blind three uh right three point shift
Noor: no more blind three it’s not worth three points anymore if someone tells you that you tell them that’s a mythconceptions
