By Only Players Staff
Updated 7/24/24 2:41am ET
Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is the -130 odds-on favorite for the American League Cy Young award. However, he could be traded to the NL over the next week.
Photo Courtesy: Shutterstock
Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
We always look for betting value when stepping up to the counter or grabbing the app on your phone and firing, especially in the futures market. Are there opportunities sometimes when odds makers are falling asleep at the wheel? I think the American League Cy Young Award is really interesting because we have an odds on favorite with Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers at minus 140. Corbin Burns, former Cy Young Award winneg lurking. Seth Lugo has been fantastic for the Royals. Logan Gilbert just not getting the run support. Same can be said for Garrett Crochet of the Whitesox.
But I think the important thing to discuss is the trade deadline, which is about a week away. Skubal could get traded to the National League. Now, he is signed through 2027. So it’s going to take a monster package of prospects for a team to part with him. And he has to go to the National League to give betting value elsewhere. So let’s think about this. Let’s call it 50 -50, the Tigers actually trade them. I think it’s more 60 -40, they
So let’s say there’s a 40 % chance he is traded and let’s call it half and half, he goes to the National League. So there’s really only about a 20 % chance he gets traded to the National League. Dodgers, Padres and Braves are all sort of mentioned. Of course, there’s an outlier team that’s not surfaced, maybe the Cardinals or someone like that, you never know. But I would say 20 % chance he ends up in the National League and that would basically nullify him from the AL Cy Young race and that would give huge value to Burns because Skubal has been fantastic.
So is +260 worth taking a shot on what you know roundabout 20 % chance of getting traded to the National League? He can still win it if he gets traded the Orioles or some team like that because the Orioles are in on him. All reports indicate that so he would have to go to the NL Dodgers again. These are just reports but supposedly they’re more interested in Crochet. They want a hitter maybe Arozarena over in Tampa.
I don’t think I would need more payout for Burns because I don’t think he wins it unless Skubal traded. So you’re just betting on a guy getting traded. But +260 does sort of make things interesting.
