By Only Players Staff
Updated 6/26/24 3:10am ET
The NBA Draft has predictably seen significant moneyline swings in the betting market. Where’s the betting value on the day of the draft?
Photo Courtesy: Icon Sportswire
Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
So much criticism about this year’s NBA draft in terms of talent, but as we like to say, all ticket slips cash the same. Meaning, doesn’t really matter if you’re betting on the draft and that’s what the fun of this is. And every year has a sort of different vibe. And this one, obviously wide open, at least we thought coming in. Now we’ve seen some money lines and everything settle in and there’s really not a ton of value left at this juncture.
I posted a bunch of plays or a few players .com or the only players app. The markets all moved in that direction. So less than a week ago, Risacher was -110, -120. Now he’s overwhelming at like -290 to be the number one overall pick. Alex Saar was, you know, he’s now minus 700 or something even higher. And then the third pick is going to come down between Clingan. We think Clingan and Shepherd out of Kentucky.
Now I think Castle could be worth a play out of UConn at like 15 to 1, 16 to 1. So that’s the one bet I would recommend with the current market. I think there’s a chance Imea Udoka likes Castle and not Shepherd, but that’s just speculation and taking a value play. There’s no reports or anything along those lines. The other play I really liked was Dalton Knecht under nine and a half in terms of his draft position, meaning under would be one through nine in terms of the top nine picks. And that’s now at seven and a half and it’s a little juicy in the minus 250 range. I still think it’s a good play because you’re looking at like a 70 % likelihood in terms of what that money line translates to. And I think there’s a better chance. I don’t see him falling past seven Portland. Now the key was San Antonio at eight, but I don’t think Knecht’s going to be there. I think he’s one of the best players in the draft. I think just his versatility and his size and his scoring ability is going to just, it’s too tantalizing. Now he is age 23. But I do think that’s not going to scare off teams anymore, especially ones that want to win now.So I do see now Clingan could change things around if he falls, but I like that’s the one I like the most, Dalton Knecht.
Now in terms of other plays, there’s a ton of value elsewhere in the draft in terms of top 20, top 15 markets, things along those lines. But it turns out to be a guessing game because remember, and I say this during the NFL draft, the farther you get away from the number one overall pick, the less predictable it is. So obviously the top couple picks more predictable than the middle of their first round and the end of the first round. So that’s when you can get some bombers to actually cash teams take chances at 18, 19 and 20. So have some fun with that. And I will post my final plays on onlyplayers .com and also the only players app.
