By Only Players Staff
Updated 7/24/24 2:13am ET
The Mets have won the first three meetings and go for the Subway Series sweep on Wednesday but have to face Gerrit Cole. Aaron Judge was walked four time on Tuesday and his batting props are skewed towards a similar performance.
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Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
After a dramatic Tuesday night game in the Bronx, Mets and Yankees wrap up their Subway Series on Wednesday. It was two earlier in the season, two this week, and the Mets going for the sweep. They’ve won the first three meetings of the season, but they’re gonna have to go against Garrett Cole on Wednesday. Yanks -165 favorites at home. Eight and a half is your over-under. And a lot of layers to this. First, let’s start with Garrett Cole, former Cy Young Award winner, obviously.
Got a late start to the season. His season debut was in June and then he’s pitched really effectively in his last two starts. Six innings, one earned in each of those. So we are seeing sort of that vintage Garrett Cole. Now against the Orioles he got touched up, but I think we see a really strong performance. This Mets lineup has been streaky, has been a little red hot lately. They’re doing just enough, but I think we see Cole pitched really well. Now what do we do with it?
It’s gonna be interesting, because this Yankees lineup has been criticized. Jose Kinseko tweeted that it’s one of the worst lineups ever. That’s extreme. You do have Judge and Soto. But Severino, the Mets pitcher, criticizing it. And we saw crystal clear what the Mets think of the rest of the lineup outside of Judge, because Judge was walked four times on Wednesday. One of those intentional. The other three just pitched around him, didn’t give him anything to hit. And in the ninth, they did pitch to him, because Soto was on and they got him, but he hadn’t really seen any pitches all night.
I think it’s great from the prop market. So let’s look at this. Judge, again, walked four times. So he’s -265 to have a walk. Before Tuesday’s game, he was around even money all season. But now that juice, just because the way the Yankees will structure their lineup, they’re facing a lefty just like they did on Tuesday. The odds makers don’t think Judge is going to see anything. Now, that might be a little juicy.
I think it’s not free money, but it’s close to it. But I think there are other options, -165 to not have an RBI. This Yankees lineup’s not hitting. And that means guys will not be in scoring position to put pressure on the pitchers. That’s really what you’re betting. And still, will the Mets still pitch around Judge and walk him with a guy on? Pedro Martinez in the post game TV coverage said he would have walked Judge, even with Soto on first, and put the tying run in scoring position. Now, Curtis Granderson disagreed.
You can also go under one and a half total bases, -140. Remember, walks don’t count towards total bases. So even if judge gets a a base hit that is, he would need a double in order for that over to cash if he only had one hit. And to go hit list is +150. So I think just, it’s a fun discussion given how the Mets treated him on Tuesday. That was against a lefty starting pitcher. So the lineup was set a certain way. Figures to be the same on Wednesday with another lefty with Sean Menea going.
So I think you can have some real fun with those props. And I do lean to some of those like -165 to not have an RBI is my favorite play of all those props.
