Analysis: Hedging Celtics future

Almost every bettor has found themselves facing a hedge decision. If you followed my Betting Card, you already know I have five units on the Boston Celtics to win the title at +105 odds. So what is the best course of action, assuming I do not want to let it ride?

MONEY MATTERS

The first thing I do is assess the dollar figures. If a futures ticket contains a massive payout, I firmly believe significant or life-changing money should impact the decision. Specifically, one should secure at least some profit. However, in the case of these +105 odds, we can likely skip that step.

HANDICAP IN A VACUUM

My next step is handicapping the series in a vacuum – do I think the Celtics will win? Personally, I feel Boston gets it done but I also see a scenario where Dallas wins the title. In the event I feel strongly about one side, I allow my opinion to skew the unit sizes so one championship outcome nets more than the other. However, for the sake of this exercise, I will use amounts that ensure only one net result.

SIMPLEST HEDGE

One luxury I have is that Boston is a sizable favorite, which gives me several options. The cleanest decision would be to bet the Mavs at the best price (+188 at FanDuel). If I place 3.56 units, then I will profit 1.69 units with either champion. Just kick back and enjoy the games, right?

FINALS MVP

But there are other options, starting with what I feel makes much more sense than betting Dallas. Luka Doncic has +210 odds to win Finals MVP. Given his usage, I do not see a single scenario where Dallas wins and someone like Kyrie Irving wins the award. Doncic fills up the stat sheet in too many ways, and Boston is too talented to lose the series without Doncic leading the way.

Thus, with a +210 hedge on Luka for 3.306 units, I can lock in 1.94 units. That is better than 1.69 units and thus worth it, in my opinion. At the very least, I would only consider this option and not the Mavs series price.

Of course, I could lose both wagers (8.306 units) but I see that as virtually impossible and worth the tradeoff.

EXACT OUTCOMES

The next few options are riskier but do have larger benefit. I am having a hard time envisioning Dallas winning the series in four or five games, given Boston has home-court advantage. That would entail the Mavs win at least two games in Beantown.

Thus, I would wager:

1.58 units: Mavs to win in 6 games (+550 DraftKings)

1.14 units: Mavs to win in 7 games (+800 DraftKings)

This would ensure a profit of 2.54 units, which is obviously more enticing than 1.94 units from the path involving Doncic MVP. However, I am risking Dallas does not win in four or five games. If they did, then I would lose all bets (7.72 units).

So, I would have to decide if this is getting too cute…..is the allure of +2.54 units versus +1.94 units with Doncic MVP worth the risk of losing 7.72 units?

Or, another way to put it, I am indirectly betting my own prop, risking 7.72 units to win 0.6 extra units on Dallas not defeating Boston in a sweep or five games. That’s a moneyline price of -1287. Barring injury, Boston would be favored in all games and thus the math is probably on my side.

For reference, DraftKings has a Dallas sweep at +1800 and Dallas in five games at +1200.

GAME-TO-GAME HEDGING – BOSTON WINS GAME 1

Another element is knowing Dallas is going to be a sizable underdog in the first two games. If Boston wins the series opener, barring injury, an oddsmaker told me the Celtics would be about a -360 favorite (Mavs +300).

So, one approach would be to bet a unit on Dallas +6.5 points in Game 1. If Boston wins a tight game, then I am sitting pretty. If it’s a blowout, then I have a net of -1.1 units but sit in a favorable position with my futures ticket.

I could then wager 2.4 units on Dallas at +300 or even Luka Doncic MVP at +330.

A) Boston wins series = +1.75 units

B) Doncic wins MVP = +1.82 units

If Dallas covers in a Game 1 loss and then loses the series, assuming no other bets, I net 6.25 units.

If I decide to hedge after Game 1 with Doncic MVP +330 for 2.385 units, then I net +3.87 units with either champion.

GAME-TO-GAME HEDGING – DALLAS WINS GAME 1

If Dallas wins Game 1, then the plot thickens. I would obviously win my spread bet of one unit but the new series price, according to one oddsmaker, would be -110 for each side with Doncic’s MVP odds around +100 or +110.

A 4.88-unit wager on +110 for Doncic would lock in a net of +1.37 units with either champion.

So, in the worst-case scenario, barring injury, I profit +1.37 units. Remember, in the first example, I would net +1.69 units with a simple series bet on Dallas – or 1.94 units on Doncic MVP before the series.

Each of those outcomes is obviously better than 1.37. However, with this latest option, I gamble a bit on Game 1 and have a chance at netting 1.75, 1.82, 3.87 or 6.25 units.

CONCLUSION

Does your head hurt yet? Unfortunately, flushing out all scenarios is necessary to optimize value. It can be tedious but also rewarding, knowing that you gave yourself the best chance possible.

Given this specific matchup and the current betting odds across all indexes, my personal preference is to bet one unit on Dallas +6.5 points in Game 1 and go from there. That’s because my appetite for risk is probably higher than most but I also am confident in Boston’s ability to win Game 2, if it lost Game 1 outright. Even still, I could lock in +1.37 units and call it a day after one game.

Obviously an injury changes a lot. That’s why I maintain that if large amounts of money are involved, the right approach is to hedge at least a portion in order to lock in a profit.

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