By Only Players Staff
Updated 10/22/24 5:31am ET
Luka Doncic enters the season as the +370 betting favorite, seeking his first NBA MVP award. Are there any longshots worth considering?
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Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Awards betting is so awesome because you can really find opportunities and inefficiencies in the market. After all, you’re betting on performance, but you’re also betting on opinion and evaluation from media members. And that’s why it’s really hard for sportsbooks to have a true market or true read of all these situations. And on top of that, especially in a sport like the NBA. It’s a long season and there’s a lot of games. You don’t have to make a wager prior to the season starting. However, I do like one long shot.
Let’s take a look at least the top of the betting board. Luka Doncic, your betting favorite. It’s the second time in the last three seasons. He’s entered a season as the betting favorite. Hasn’t won one of course. Nikola Jokic, a three time MVP is your second betting favorite at DraftKings. SGA who got some votes last year, first place votes that is, he’s third betting favorite. And then Giannis, don’t forget about him. It’s a drop off to third favorite, but Giannis at 8-1.
Now it’s important to remember, NBA is very much the MVP connected to team success. Rarely do we see a player out whose team is not a top two seed or really top three seed, not win the MVP. Westbrook won it that one off year when he averaged a triple double. And then Jokic, I believe his first MVP because other guys got hurt and he came on late, but Denver was did not have a top seed until the next couple of years.
I think Luka’s numbers are outrageous. He’s almost averaging a triple double himself. If the Mavs continue that strong second half of the season and they do end up as the three or maybe even four seed, I think he’s going to get it just because his stats are so overwhelming. But the others, I think, I think there’s voter fatigue with Jokic, especially Embiid, although he’s a long shot because he’s not going to play enough games, 25-1. There’s even still voter fatigue with Giannis in my opinion. It all depends what the Bucks do.
Anthony Edwards is getting some momentum. I just don’t think his numbers are there. Now the T-Wolves could very easily get the one seed. That would be impressive. I think SGA and the Thunder, I think the Thunder get the one seed. But if Minnesota does or the two seed and Ant is the leader, I could conceivably see it. I just don’t think his stats are overwhelmingly enough. I think there’s going to be someone in the East or another player in the West that’s going to be a comparable seed and just have that much better stats.
The one guy I think is worth betting now because these favorites are gonna interchange in a little bit. You’re not gonna lose much value between now and like January on some of these odds. But the long shots do, those odds do adjust drastically. And then Donovan Mitchell’s worth a price. 100-1 is a huge, huge payout. I don’t think he’s gonna win, but I’m high on the Cavs this year. I think they bring in a really good coach, Kenny Atkinson, and they had a bunch of star players who were hurt last year with their stars. So I think they’re they could very easily get the two seed or something like that. And if Mitchell goes off, I mean, 100-1, right? If he starts having a great October, November, that’s going to go down to like 20-1.
So I would make just the smallest of plays on Mitchell at 100-1. But for the most part, I’d wait on betting any MVP futures.
