By Only Players Staff
Updated 7/2/24 3:51am ET
Shohei Ohtani has pulled ahead in the NL MVP race since teammate Mookie Betts sustained an injury. He’s a -230 betting favorite but no DH has ever won the award so is there value elsewhere?
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Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
We talk about awards markets so often, really how fake of a market it is. There’s no algorithms that really make sense of it all. It’s about odds makers and bettors who shift the market, really trying to predict human behavior in terms of voting and decision making. And that’s why there are opportunities. So the National League, actually both leagues have an MVP betting favorite, more of a favorite than minus 200. So Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers -230, he sort of surged ahead since the Mookie Bet’s injury for the blue crew.
In fact, his teammate, Freddie Freeman is the second favorite at plus 750. Bryce Harper on the injured list at plus 850. Then we get into the double digits with Ozuna 16 to one. Marte 25 to one. You never know, maybe Arizona gets hot like they did last year all the way to the World Series. Lindor lurking at 35 to one. Never know, maybe more grimace sightings and the Mets really play some great ball. Second half of the season. We’re only past, barely past the first half mark.
So, I would not lay minus money on anyone, whether it’s Judge in the American League or Ohtani in the National League. Remember, there’s never been an MVP that’s predominantly a designated hitter. Now, Ohtani could do it, but he doesn’t have the pitching this year. And I think a position player will get the deference that he does, does not. I like Harper. Now he’s on the injury list, but he’s going to come back before the All -Star break. It’s not going to be that long. It’s only a handful of missed games. And let’s take a look at how he stacks up against Ohtani.
Ohtani has a sizable lead in war for sure. But it’s not like he’s got the war advantage because of pitching. Harper plays the field and that matters. Now you look at the RBIs, the Homers are close. A lot of stuff is within striking distance and maybe Ohtani gets cold for a little bit. Who knows, right? He doesn’t have Betts protecting him. Now he has been on fire since the Betts injury and Freeman’s protecting him and the rest of the Dodgers lineup. But I think if you can get plus 850 on Harper, and by the way, the Phillies have a better record than the Dodgers and the Braves, they’re holding them off.
So the Dodgers, Ohtani could be punished. Couple reasons. One, his team is so loaded. So even when Betts comes back, they’re going to probably run away with the NOS. Number two, he doesn’t get the automatic boost as he should have in the previous years when he pitched. I respected that and I agreed with that, but that’s not the case now. So Harper is going to get that deference, I think. And if the Phillies have a better record and their pitching’s more reliable. So I think they’re going to have a better record than the Dodgers.
So I think Harper, I would have made them like four to one, not plus 850. So I like, I think there’s really good value on Bryce Harper right now. And that’s, you know, that’s the beauty of the awards market. When things are calm, you can kind of sneak in and grab a good price. I think Harper will be back sooner than we think. And I think that’s value right there.
