By Kenny Burgess
The final leg of the Triple Crown Series finishes this Sunday, Jun. 10, with the 155th running of the Belmont Stakes. Run on a 1.5-mile track, the Belmont Stakes is the longest leg of the Triple Crown and, in most cases, the longest race any of the horses will ever compete in. This typically makes it one of the hardest races to handicap for oddsmakers, but there are some trends that can help point us in the right direction and take advantage of certain lines.
Trends And History Of The Belmont Winners
Horses who have competed in the Kentucky Derby have enjoyed a great amount of success in this race, with 13 of the last 20 winners having also run in the Derby. More specifically, 10 of those 13 went directly from running the Derby into the Belmont Stakes. Going back even further in the last 26 years, 69 percent of Belmont Stakes winners had already run in the Kentucky Derby.
Historically, running the Preakness Stakes hasn’t led to success in the Belmont. In the past 20 years, only two Preakness starters have gone on to win the Belmont, with two of them being Triple Crown winners — American Pharoah (2016) and Justify (2018). Dating back to 1997, 73 percent of the Belmont winners skipped the Preakness Stakes.
This event hasn’t been kind to the favorites over the course of history, but in recent memory, the favorites have fared well, winning five of the last 10 iterations of the race. Oftentimes when the favorite doesn’t come out on top, it’s a long shot that finds its way into the winner’s circle. Over the past 20 years, eight of the winners (40 percent) have entered the race at 11-1 odds or longer.
Overall, history tells you this race is one where big underdogs are very much in play, especially if they ran in the Kentucky Derby and skipped out on the Preakness Stakes. If you’re not comfortable with the favorite, it might be worth the risk of taking a shot with one of the bigger underdogs.
How Does This Apply To This Year’s Race?
This year’s field has nine horses and the favorite is Forte, whose odds sit at 5-2. Some people are concerned about Forte’s ability to handle a long track at Belmont as he’s never run a race longer than 1-1/8 miles. Forte entered the Kentucky Derby as the favorite as he’s won six of his seven career starts, but was ultimately scratched due to a bruise on one of the hooves that resulted in a state veterinarian scratching him from the race. Forte also hasn’t raced since his scratch, so that combined with his inexperience in long-distance races makes me hesitant to bet on the favorite.
If not the favorite, then who? The second favorite, Tapit Trice at 3-1 odds, does meet the criteria of running in the Kentucky Derby and skipping out on the Preakness, but did underperform at the Derby, finishing seventh despite drawing the No. 5 post position, which has produced the most winners in the history of the race. Tapit Trice will be running out of the No. 2 position at Belmont, which is just the fifth-most productive poll position in the history of the race.
Angel of Empire comes into the Belmont as the third favorite at 7-2 odds and, unlike the other horses, ran in both the Kentucky Derby (third place finish) and Preakness Stakes (second place finish) this Triple Crown season. While competing in both races is usually the kiss of death for horses in this race, Angel of Empire has four wins in seven starts and has been steadily progressing in terms of his speed figures. There is always the worry of burnout when the horses are competing so much, but if his recent times tell you anything, Angel of Empire might be due to pulling this one off.
An underdog who has caught the eyes of many is Arcangelo. He enters the race with 8-1 odds, but does have experience on his side — Just last month, Arcangelo won the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park and is familiar with the track. Arcangelo is also one of few horses in the race who has proven he can run a race with this much distance. Horse handicapper Gene Menez highlighted Arcangelo as his dark horse and recently told CBS Sports, “Jockey Javier Castellano has been riding great recently and has a knack of getting horses to outrun their odds in the Belmont. If the Test of the Champion is not too much too soon for Arcangelo, he could be right there at the end.”
The Belmont Stakes is one of the most noteworthy horse races of the year and has proven to be one of the most unpredictable races in the sport. This year should be no different and any of the nine horses have a shot to be victorious this weekend. Full odds are listed as follows:
| Position | Horse | Odds |
| 1 | Tapit Shoes | 20-1 |
| 2 | Tapit Trice | 3-1 |
| 3 | Arcangelo | 8-1 |
| 4 | National Treasure | 5-1 |
| 5 | Il Miracolo | 30-1 |
| 6 | Forte | 5-2 |
| 7 | Hit Show | 10-1 |
| 8 | Angel of Empire | 7-2 |
| 9 | Red Route One | 15-1 |
Photo credit: Shutterstock
