By Larry Rupp
The time has finally come! It’s been 11 months since the Baylor Bears won the 2021 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and time to crown a new champion. Selection Sunday is right around the corner and soon millions of Americans will be filling out March Madness brackets.
Entering pools with family, friends and coworkers can be fun, but only one person can end up with the bracket that best matches what actually happens. Here’s a few strategies to keep in mind when picking winners round by round before all the action gets started on Thursday, March 17.
Take into Consideration Where the Teams are Playing
Yes, there is technically no home-court advantage in the NCAA Tournament. None of the teams involved will have the luxury of playing in their own gym as every game will be taking place at a neutral site. However, bettors would be smart to take into account where these neutral sites are at.
Certain teams may be forced to hop on a plane in order to get to the location, which would cause the players to face a dreaded jet lag situation. It’s possible they come into the game a bit tired after having their usual routine taken away. Avoiding backing teams stuck in that circumstance would be advantageous.
On the other side, finding teams that are playing closer to home is a must. Not only do the players take a simple bus ride to the location, but a majority of their fan base usually travels as well. Having family and friends there to cheer the team on is obviously going to provide an emotional boost.
Don’t be Afraid to Put a Double-Digit Seed in the Sweet 16
Anyone who has tuned in to March Madness before knows that not every higher seeded team wins in the first round. Upsets can happen all over the place. The only downside is that since it has become such general knowledge, picking upsets won’t exactly separate you from your bracket pool.
Latching onto a double-digit seeded Cinderella team to make it to the second weekend will, though. Not only will it help you create a unique bracket, but it could also make you look like a genius. 26 of the last 28 NCAA Tournaments have featured at least one team seeded below ninth in the Sweet 16 round.
In fact, last year’s tourney saw a whopping four double-digit seeds win at least two games (UCLA, Oregon State, Oral Roberts and Syracuse). Researching some of the lower seeds and determining which one has the talent to shock the world could be what wins you your pool.
Oral Roberts became just the second 15-seed to earn a trip to the #Sweet16 👏
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) April 19, 2021
Relive the best moments from @ORUMBB's historic run! #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/hCMvj3YKBf
Go With a Top Program to Win it All
Nailing upset picks is one of the most gratifying experiences of filling out a bracket, yet it’s important not to get carried away. When it gets down toward the end, sticking with the top teams has proven to be the best strategy. 30 of the last 32 champions have been seeded third or higher.
This one comes down to balance more than anything else. Every championship team over the last 18 tournaments ranked inside the top 20 in defensive efficiency and all but one ranked inside the top 20 in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Blue blood programs simply get the job done.
This could mean targeting a team that is entering the tournament on a high after winning its conference tournament. It could also mean focusing on Duke or Kentucky given their lengthy track record of success. Just don’t pick a long shot because they always fall short in the end.
Every National Champion in the KenPom era (1997-) finished top 40 in offensive and top 25 in defensive efficiency. Here are the teams that currently fit that mold:
— Cooper Watson (@coopertwatson) January 23, 2022
– Arizona
– Auburn
– Baylor
– Duke
– Gonzaga
– Houston
– Kentucky
– Michigan St
– Nova
– Texas
– UCLA
– UConn
– USC
Picture Credit: Shutterstock
