Toronto Maple Leafs (+100) v Tampa Bay Lightning (-120)
PICK: I’m taking Toronto ML for Game 1 but we may need to reassess for Game 2
Here ya go Leafs fans! Time to put your money where your mouth is. Toronto is going to get tested right out of the gate. Note to anyone who lives in the Toronto area please don’t loiter downtown if the Leafs get swept. They may burn the arena down! We can talk all you want about how well Toronto played down the stretch. We can also talk about how Matthews and Marner are working so well together on the ice. The depth is solid through and through with Nylander, Kase, Tavares, Kerfoot, and Bunting. We can tout the veteran defense with Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin, Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie. But we all know the little mouse in our head is wondering if the goaltending is going to hold up. I think you’d be surprised to hear that Jack Campbell lost only nine games this season, it sure felt like more than that. Mrazek is in, now he’s out. Kallgren looked hot, now he’s a bit suspect. Campbell did come back in April from his month long absence and went 7-2, with his two losses in OT. So will Toronto be able to stop the slide of losing in the first round the past 5 years? Let’s remember (eh, not remember) that they were up 3-1 to Montreal last year! If the Leafs can get that monkey off their back and beat the reigning back to back Stanley Cup Champions, it’s safe to say that they could go all the way.
Tampa hasn’t looked like the typical Tampa Bay team this year. Mediocre wins at home, low numbers for road wins. And when they have won they typically don’t cover the PL so to me that opens the door for a lot of uncertainty. But what they do have is Andrei Vasilevskiy, even with his not so stellar season at 39-18, you still know for a fact that he is your starter and he can take the team on his back. The other interesting thing with the Lightning is the lack of output from the offense. Stamkos finished on top with 106 points, but then you look to Hedman at 85 points and the floor continues to fallout with Kucherov at 69 and Killorn with 59. So it will be interesting to see how they play in this first round. They’ve got lots of veterans on the team with Maroon, Perry, McDonagh, Bellemare and Bogosian. If Tampa gets down a couple of games early I’m confident that this group will be able to right the ship, and how will Toronto handle that?
Regular Season Series: Tied (2-2)
Nov 4th: TB 1 (Vasilevskiy) @ TOR 2 (Campbell) (OT)
Dec 9th: TB 5 (Vasilevskiy) @ TOR 3 (Campbell)
Apr 4th: TOR 6 (Campbell) @ TB 2 (Vasilevskiy)
Apr 21st: Tor 1 (Kallgren) @ TB 8 (Vasilevskiy)
Tampa Bay Numbers
Home Wins 66% (27-14); Away Wins 59% (24-17)
Home Favorite 66% (27-14); Away Favorite 67% (20-10)
Home 53% Over (21O/19U); Away 56% Over (22O/17U)
Home v Atlantic 54% (7-6); Away v Atlantic 62% (8-5)
Home Favorite -$95; Away Favorite +$241
Home PL 41% (17-24); Away PL 46% (19-22)
Toronto Numbers
Home Wins 76% (31-10); Away Wins 56% (23-18)
Home Dog 100% (1-0); Away Dog 40% (4-6)
Home 53% Under (19U/17O); Away 69% Over (27O/12U)
Home v Atlantic 77% (10-3); Away v Atlantic 46% (6-7)
Home Dog +$100; Away Dog -$264
Home PL 49% (20-21); Away PL 46% (19-22)
