By Chewy & Lewy
Chewy is away this week, so I’ll be taking an opportunity to share some of my thoughts on hockey and trying to figure out this crazy thing called sports predictions. But before we get ahead of ourselves, an introduction.
I started playing hockey at a young age, pushing old wooden chairs around Warinanco Park in New Jersey. The things I remember most were waking up at 5am in the dead of winter, putting on skates that were hand-me-downs from the 50’s, chicken wire fencing for glass and trying to avoid some kid we called “Captain Crunch”. For most of my childhood I was the smallest kid on the ice and early in my development some brainiac coach decided it was a good idea to have me play defense. So through lots of trial and error and getting bundled in the corner boards every now and then, I eventually got the hang of things and was able to fend for myself for those 60 minutes.
I remember the exact moment I figured out hockey was a violent sport. In 8th grade, I played for a pretty good club team….hold on……when I say club team, I’m not talking about 2022 Southern California Elite Travel Club team with buses and hotels that kids play on now-a-days, I’m talking about a “country” club hockey team. But, to be fair, we still had some pretty talented players on our squad that would head off to play for Ivy Leagues and Boston institutions. So this little rag tag crew would often find itself playing against real elite travel teams and the New Jersey Rockets were the best of the best for anyone living in the Tri-State area. During one of those games I was out on the ice playing against Jeremy Roenick, you know, just two middle school kids, enjoying the game of hockey, having fun and competing. That was until I tried to clear him from in front of the net and before I knew it, he turns around and spears me square in the chest. I’m immediately on the ground exhaling every cubic inch of air that had ever entered my lungs thinking, “Wow, this guy really wants to win”. Needless to say he ended up scoring on the play and as I got to the bench, I asked my coach why would someone do that to another player. He looked at me and shook his head and that’s when I knew that I would not be playing in the NHL. Fast forward a couple of years, a couple of inches and a couple of pounds, I kept playing throughout high school and I was even able to walk on at a Division 2 program in New Hampshire. Unfortunately because of something called classes and grades, my professional hockey career came to a screeching halt. So I tempered my expectations and resigned myself to beer leagues, trips to Vegas for all night tournaments and playing the enforcer. And no, Frankie Munoz did not kick my ass, however some 21 year old who played for the minor league Dayton Bombers tuned me up good one night.
Ok, back to the NHL and trying to pick winners week in and week out. First rule of thumb is…nobody and I mean nobody picks all winners. And I’m not saying that to make excuses for our picks that don’t payout, all I’m saying is, it’s just not possible to go 100%. But if you listen to these guys on YouTube or on the radio who tout their winning strategies, their win streaks or their “Stone Cold Locks” of the night, you’d think that the money is pouring in. Well that ain’t happening. Here are however a handful of “Things to Consider” when deciding on a team.
- Goalies – The NHL has absolutely screwed the betting public each night, by not mandating each team declare who’ll be in net that night at a reasonable time prior to the puck drop. Who ends up in net will make a huge difference on the outcome of a game. There aren’t that many NHL teams with a #2 goalie who you can rely on. Just look at Toronto and the troubles they’re having in net! God knows what’s going on there! Is it going to be another early exit for the Maple Leafs? Campbell and Mrazek are leaking oil bad!
- Injuries – You have to keep track of who’s in and who’s out. Earlier this year when Covid was wreaking havoc on rosters it was important to know if your star players are going to be out on the ice. Especially when you’re betting the Puck Line. You can even dig deeper with line setups. A team like Edmonton manipulates their lines a lot. Are McDavid and Draisaitl going to skate together, I know I’d like that information going into a game.
- Schedules – Keeping track of the length of road trips, West Coast going to the East, Saturday morning games and Back to Back games all are important trends to monitor and to take advantage of. The New York Islanders have to play 18 back to back games this season, that being said, you will need to rely on your backup goalie a minimum of 18 times. Unfortunately for the Isles Varlamov sitting at 4-12 this season is a major disappointment compared to his 19-11 stint last year. Teams like Winnipeg, San Jose and Edmonton who only play 10 back to backs can ride that #1 goalie. Too bad Edmonton’s defense couldn’t play better in front of their tender, because Skinner’s future could be quite good in the Great White North.
Some of the difficulties about monitoring these categories is the craziness of the past few seasons. Back in 2018 it was easy to look at the four previous seasons to compare schedules or playoffs. But they’ve changed the schedule make up the past three seasons that you can’t use historical data like you used to. For instance, last season teams only played within their division. Now that was great because there were so many Home and Home series that we could see trends forming. But unfortunately that didn’t translate to this season. We’re back to a club playing each team in their division 4 times, in their conference 3 times and outside of their conference twice. So back to the drawing board. I’m a spreadsheet guy, so I like keeping track of info by entering it in by hand: scores, odds, over/unders, home/away and a handful of other criteria. This allows me to not only calculate and arrange info quickly and efficiently but because I don’t download the info, I get to see trends and consistencies as the season progresses.
I also want to take a moment to discuss news round the league per the trade deadline. Josh Manson got traded to Colorado to help solidify the back end as a physical, no-nonsense veteran. Colorado gives up Drew Helleson and a 2nd rounder to Anaheim, who continues to build a young, skilled team that will pose major problems real soon for any team in Pacific Division. Where and when will Claude Giroux go? The most talked about move that still hasn’t happened and more importantly can he bring to the table what everyone hopes he can do for a playoff bound team. If Brock Boesser can find his game, he’d be an excellent add on prior to the playoffs. Cal Clutterbuck is another character player like Manson that can fill a role. Jake DeBrusk still sits on the 1st line for Boston and he has reaped the rewards of complaining, how bizarre is that? But I guess Boston understands that the better he looks the more attractive the offer will be. And the last one I’ll bring up is Patty Kane. Man who wouldn’t love to see him playing for a contender late in the season. He continues to dazzle when on the ice and is among the league leaders in assists this season. How about Toronto’s Matthews getting a 2 game suspension for handle-baring Dahlin across the head. You think they have goaltending issues now, ha! Khudobin for Dallis is out for the season, thank goodness US born, 23 year old netminder Jake Oettinger has stepped up for the Stars in his 2nd NHL season.
20 Wins for Jake Oettinger. 🦦 pic.twitter.com/83EqDHedLB
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) March 18, 2022
Click HERE for a detailed explanation on why we like these picks.
Picks for this week: Minnesota ML, Dallas/NYI Under, Edmonton ML, Columbus ML, St. Louis/Columbus Over
Last week’s results: Single game picks 2-1, parlay pick 0-1, Costanza 0-1. Running dollar total assuming $100 bet on single games, $50 on positive parlay and $25 on the Costanza = -$30 (Nash +$100, Cgy +$100, New Jersey -$155, Parlay -$50, Costanza -$25)
Our overall record can be seen here.
