This weekend we’re going to talk statistics. I am a firm believer that with betting you should take into account the historical data. And as a lover of spreadsheets, you gotta look at the numbers. I can’t tell you how many frigging hours I’ve spent looking at numbers this season…..entering, tallying, computing crunching, ughhhh! Can we just get to the playoffs already! But it is a labor of love and I wouldn’t wager on a game without it!
I think the thing that most bettors struggle with is the fact that they lose games. A classic situation is when Underdogs win big one night and all of a sudden guys will start betting Dogs. My advice is to develop a strategy and stick with it. I liken it to counting cards in blackjack or even flipping a coin. You have an expected outcome (in poker they call it Expected Value (EV) and then you have the actual outcome. There will be fluctuations along that timeline, like losing, but the longer you play the closer it will get to that expectation. So stay committed to what you believe in.
Favorites won 65% of their games this season and if you bet every favorite you’d be up $4,143. Obviously, Dogs won 35% of the time and if you bet every dog you’d be down $17,404. If you bet on home favorites, which went 64%, you’d be down $178, however, if you bet on every away favorite, which won 65%, you’d be up $4,321.
Home teams won 53% of their games and if you bet on every home team you’d be minus $8,836. If you bet on every Away team those 47% wins would put you at a loss of $4,390. Home dogs won 35% of their games and you’d be down $8,754 for the season. Away dogs were only a little better going 36% and down $8,650.
The best Home Favorites to bet on this year were Florida (+$1,604), Colorado (+$1,275), and Minnesota (+$949). The Home teams that performed the worst I think will surprise you. Top three losers were Calgary (-$1,610), Washington (-$1,493) and Pittsburgh (-$986).
The top Home Dogs that were net positive were far and few between. Rangers (+$377), Minnesota (+$312), and Dallas (+$261). Things to keep in mind is that winning teams are rarely Dogs at home, so the winning opportunities are typically sparse and go to the teams at the bottom which as you’ll see aren’t great. And speaking of those dumpster fires, the top (probably not the best adjective) three teams that couldn’t win at home especially as a Dog were Chicago (-$1,114), Arizona (-$1,059), and Montreal (-$999).
Ok now let’s get to the most opportunistic betting angle which are Away Favorites. The Rangers show up again at +$1,020. Boston stepped up on the road with a +$882 and a team that many probably didn’t consider (much like them making the playoffs) is Los Angeles at +$793. The flip side and teams you should fade as Away Favorites are Toronto (-$602), St. Louis (-$524), and Nashville (-$439).
Away Dogs again create issues for most gamblers and St. Louis might not be a good Away Favorite, however they lead as Away Dogs with a net +$583. Nashville also confuses us with choking as a Favorite on the road but taking advantage of the opportunities as an underdog at +$485. And Ottawa enters the conversation at +$474. And finally, the teams that can’t win on the road….ever! The Anaheim Ducks (-$1,307), New Jersey Devils (-$1,204), and Philadelphia Flyers (-$1,125) not only do they suck as Away Dogs but they are also vying for the 1st pick in the lottery.
When looking at Puck Lines, 60% of all games differed by more than a goal. Neither Home nor Away Puck Lines as a whole was profitable. Home teams when getting or giving the Puck Line were an abysmal -$12,567 and Away when getting or giving 1.5 were -$4,625.
If we look at it more specifically, Home teams when giving 1.5 goals per game won 41% of the time and were -$4,472 net. Home teams when getting 1.5 goals won 58% but were -$8,095. Teams playing on the road, Away teams when giving 1.5 goals were the only situation where bettors were positive with a net +$1,246 and interestingly enough only winning 42% of their games. Away teams when getting 1.5 won 59% of games but were -$5,669 net.
My final interesting facts. Only 13 of the 32 teams in the NHL were net positive if you bet on that team every game. Rangers come in on top +$1,877, Florida +$1724, Colorado +$1,100 and then Minnesota +$1,025. The worst teams to make a wager on this year were in order Philadelphia -$2,583, Montreal -$2,547, Chicago -$2,522, and Seattle -$2,044. What’s unfortunate is that Toronto which has the third-best winning record is -$600 and Buffalo which is 7th from the bottom in wins was +$200.
So the take-home message is…you need to be aware of what situations for which teams are the best for betting. Don’t just bet on a team because they’re in first place or because they’re a favorite. Follow the data and make a calculated bet where the odds favor you!
OK with all these numbers bouncing in your head, here are the FIVE picks we like for Saturday, April 23rd: New York Rangers ML, Nashville PL, NASH/TB Over, Florida ML, and FLA/TOR Over
Click HERE for a detailed explanation of why we like our Picks of the Week
Last week’s Individual Record: 3-1
Last week’s results = +$155 (NASH PL -$120, EDM ML +$100, COL ML +$100, CGY PL +100, Costanza -$25)
Overall Record HERE.
