By Doug Kezirian Senior Betting Analyst
Updated 8/25/23 1:20pm ET
Tampa Bay Bucs over 6.5 wins (+120)
The Bucs will test the theory that football is the ultimate team game. Quarterback is likely their weakest link so while it is the most important position in sports, the rest of the roster has legit quality and only seven wins are needed to cash this ticket. Baker Mayfield has not panned out as a top overall pick but I felt he played well with the Rams last year as a game manager. That’s all that is needed for this wager. Whether it’s Mayfield or Kyle Trask, they do not have to try to emulate their predecessor, Tom Brady.
Last season was marred by numerous injuries, particularly on the offensive line. Truthfully, it could not have gone worse. So hopefully 2023 will bring some good luck but the Bucs have already lost center Ryan Jensen and wide receiver Russell Gage. Nonetheless, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are back and so are some solid defensive position groups.
Keep in mind that Tampa Bay had the same win total as the Chiefs last year and were also the NFC betting favorites. I realize Brady is gone but we are only asking for seven wins. They do face a first-place schedule but their division is shaky. Dennis Allen has underwhelmed in New Orleans, Carolina has a rookie QB who I believe will struggle and Atlanta has Desmond Ridder at quarterback. Wins are attainable. 7-10 is not a whole lot to ask, especially at +120 odds.
Carolina Panthers under 7.5 wins (-115)
To a certain extent, I understand the Bryce Young love but am mostly surprised how everyone ignores his diminutive size. Frankly, he is tiny and it is seemingly only a matter of time until that becomes an insurmountable barrier. I obviously hope I am wrong because he is cherished by teammates and coaches and had a stellar college career, while possessing so many admirable qualities. However, the practical side of me feels that Carolina will underperform. Additionally, regardless of his size, all NFL rookie quarterbacks face a learning curve and growing pains. The hype is too much for this season.
Arizona Cardinals under 4.5 wins (-120)
This is a microscopic number and the NFL prides itself on parity. Plus, last year a team like Seattle was expected to be terrible and it reached the playoffs. However, this is a unique situation. The Cardinals are focused on the future, recently stockpiling draft picks in trades. Plus, the 2024 NFL Draft offers franchise-altering quarterbacks in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye so losses should be prioritized over wins.
Arizona is not favored in a single game right now and only has three games in which it is an underdog of less than three points. In short, this should be a painful season. And while five wins is not much to ask, the Cardinals open the season with a tough slate. They are at least touchdown underdogs in four of their first five games and could easily be 0-5 out of the gates. If that’s the case, they would need to finish 5-7 to lose this wager.
OTHER WIN TOTAL PLAYS I LIKE (from most confident to least):
Patriots under 7.5 (-150) To the untrained eye, the Pats won eight games last year and finally added a real offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien this offseason. However, New England only defeated one starting quarterback, catching the good fortune of facing numerous backups. They have a ways to go in a tough division and conference.
Texans under 6.5 (-130) Houston was more than C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson away from respectability. As I mentioned earlier, all rookie quarterbacks face a learning curve and growing pains. The Texans are only favored in three games and those spreads are 2.5 or less. They are short dogs in a couple of other games but I just think 7-10 is way too much to ask.
Vikings over 8.5 (-110) The betting market has overcorrected way too much. I understand last year’s 13-4 record with an undefeated mark in one-score games will regress but will they have a losing record? I doubt it. They are too explosive on offense and new defensive coordinator Brian Flores should correct some issues.
Bengals under 10.5 (+110) This is purely a regression play. The Bengals are super-talented but at some point, the injury luck has to go against them – and perhaps that’s already happening with the recent setback by Joe Burrow. I also think the Steelers and Ravens are distinctly improved, and Cleveland has a chance to be better as well.
Falcons over 8.5 (-120) I am late to the party, as respected bettors pounced on this to induce oddsmakers to move this win total from 8 to 8.5. And we see it with the opener against Carolina with the line moving from 2.5 to 3.5. I understand the support. The Falcons spent a boatload on defense in free agency, and that unit should be improved. The offense is loaded, aside from quarterback Desmond Ridder. There’s a lot to like in Atlanta.
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