By Trevor Roughan
Baseball is back! Whether it’s contending for a title or the progressing of young talent, I’m sure you’ve found things to be excited about regarding your team in 2023. With that being said, how much did you follow the rest of MLB throughout the offseason? If your answer isn’t “down to all thirty 26th men,” don’t worry. Only Players has you covered with three futures bets for this upcoming baseball season. Hopefully, we can catch you up on some developments you might have missed this past offseason, and help you make some money in the process.
Boston Red Sox – over 78.5 Wins (-115)
From a bird’s-eye view, this projection makes great sense. The Red Sox won exactly 78 games in 2022, then didn’t make a huge splash in the trade/free agency markets and lost their franchise shortstop to the Padres. As potential signings and targets kept coming off the board, most fans and media personalities were lampooning the Sox, labeling the team as cheap. That accusation may be up for debate, but the fact that Boston’s roster has significantly improved from last year is not.
First, let’s fully address the elephant in the room. Xander Bogaerts is gone. This is a big loss for Boston, to say the least, as Bogaerts had been a model of consistency throughout his entire career for the Sox. He also played a big role in the club’s world series wins in 2013 and 2017. Boston decided to pass on giving its long-time shortstop over $300 million, opting instead to spread the wealth. Most experts agree that this was the right call.
Names like Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and Adam Duvall don’t carry the same weight as Bogaerts’s, but all project to be far more productive than the players they’re replacing in Boston’s lineup. With the re-signing of superstar Rafael Devers and the presence of an ever-developing Alex Verdugo, the Red Sox project to have a deceptively deep lineup.
Pitching was Boston’s kryptonite in 2022. Heading into the 2023 season, its rotation, and especially the bullpen, seems to be in a much better place. Again, Boston didn’t splurge for any stars, but the Sox did acquire a bulk of talented, experienced veterans who should bring more consistency to the team. Nick Pivetta was arguably the club’s ace a season ago and is currently projected to be Boston’s fourth or fifth starter. The Red Sox’s bullpen includes four new faces, all seemingly massive upgrades over their 2022 counterparts. Richard Bleier and Kenley Jansen are simply far superior late-game options than Tyler Danish and Kaleb Ort.
Contending in a loaded AL East will be a difficult ask for Boston. This team is by no means perfect and can realistically only hope to obtain the AL’s second wild-card spot by the season’s end. However, the Red Sox have improved mightily since last year in several key areas, prompting experts to believe they’ll win at least 79 games in 2023.
Chicago Cubs – over 77.5 wins (-115)
This bet hit last season, and experts are predicting the same for 2023. The Cubbies are projected to win just four more games than last year’s total of 74. This number seems low.
Chicago signed (arguably) this past free agency’s best bang-for-your-buck player in shortstop, Dansby Swanson. A Haap, Hoerner, Swanson-core could be the start of something special. What potentially makes this team currently special, though, is their pitching.
A rotation headlined by Marcus Stroman, Kyle Hendricks, Justin Steele, and Drew Smyly is no joke, as these players all helped Chicago secure MLB’s fifth best post all-star ERA for starting pitchers in the second half of last season. Adding an injury-prone, but at times dominant Jameson Taillon can only help what already was a great strength for Chicago.
Like the Red Sox, the Cubs also made some under-the-radar signings that could prove to be huge this season. Cody Bellinger, once an MVP, is still under thirty years old. Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer have proven to be solid hitters over the past few years, and both have relatively high floors and all-star ceilings.
The NL Central looks to be among the weaker divisions in MLB this year, potentially opening a lane for the Cubs to make some unexpected noise. If their pitching plays to expectation, it’s hard to see Chicago losing more than 84 games in 2023.
Jacob DeGrom – under 198.5 strikeouts (-120)
This one hurts. It’s not fun betting against arguably the best pitcher of all time, but it sure is a smart bet. Let’s keep this one simple.
Jacob DeGrom has not pitched more than 92 innings in an MLB season since 2019. Injuries have plagued him these past few years, and he’s not getting any younger. DeGrom would need to pitch at least 135 innings to have a chance of hitting the over on this bet, and recent history indicates that he likely won’t be on the field enough to accomplish such a feat.
Sure, he’s DeGrom. Anything’s possible. No one would be surprised if he won the AL Cy Young award in 2023. By the same token, how surprised would you truly be if DeGrom only pitched 59 innings this year, recording 77 strikeouts? Experts are unanimous: not very surprised at all.
What do you think about these MLB futures bets for 2023? Let us know in the comments below!
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