By Only Players Staff
Updated 10/8/24 6:06am ET
Connecticut won Game 4 at home to force this decisive Game 5 on the road. The winner advances to the WNBA Finals to face the top-seeded New York Liberty.
Photo Courtesy: Icon Sportswire
Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
So much of handicapping is viewing the game through a certain lens and every situation is different such as game 5, a decisive game 5 in the WNBA semifinals. Winner goes on to the finals to face the New York Liberty who are the top seed and advanced after beating the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces. So the Sun won game 4 at home to force this game 6. Now Minnesota is the home team a 4-point favorite. The over/under has ticked up to 151.5 because the last two games have gone over after having rock fights in games 1 and 2.
These are the top two defensive teams, but the pace and the scoring was at a higher level than the odds makers expected. So both those games went over. This goes back to looking at this game through a lens. It’s hard to use regular season stats or to, it’s a win or go home game. Lot of pressure. We don’t really have like a good feel for how these players are going to respond.
I think the Lynx are the better team when they play their best. That doesn’t always happen. The Sun are sort of more have more margin for error and are more solid. And it’s why they won game 1 in Minnesota already. I think a small play on the dog plus the 4 largely because I have a futures bet on the Lynx to win it all at +1300. So maybe I can thread the needle Lynx to win by one, two, three or four points.
But I do think there’s value on the dog here, but with these kind of stakes, you just don’t know how players are going to respond. But there’s no reason that the home team, I think, should be favored by that many points.
