By Doug Kezirian
Updated 12/26/23 12:03am ET
The Ravens and 49ers played the role of Santa Claus, delivering exactly what we wanted – for 2.5 quarters. It was a highly competitive matchup with special players making elite plays. It also injected massive buzz and interest into the MVP conversation.
Brock Purdy entered the game as a significant favorite at -260. A decent individual performance and team win would have likely sealed the award. Well, he threw four interceptions and had his worst game.
Below are the updated MVP betting odds at DraftKings with my analysis for each top candidate.
Lamar Jackson -150: He entered the high-profile showdown as the second-favorite and is now understandably the odds-on favorite. His unique skillset was on full display, and 12-3 Baltimore won convincingly to be in position for the AFC’s #1 seed. However, that could change next week if they stumble when they host 11-4 Miami next week. His MVP candidacy doesn’t hinge on the top seed or winning the final two weeks but a loss obviously could disrupt it. Baltimore is a three -point favorite and -160 on the moneyline against the ‘Fins.
Keep in mind his season stats have been fairly mediocre. This win in San Francisco is fresh in our minds right now but that will not be the case in a couple weeks. I would not bet this at all. The moneyline of -150 translates to a 60% likelihood, and I think his chances are less than that.
Christian McCaffrey +400: I agree that his odds should be shorter than Purdy’s. San Francisco likely will end up with the NFC’s top seed and he’s still in the picture. Team success often impacts a quarterback’s MVP chances but I think CMC is probably not as dependent on that. Then again, a non-QB is such a rare occurrence in the MVP race (1 in last 16 years) so no one truly knows.
Purdy +600: Welp, that escalated quickly… It’s hard to imagine a single game shifting the odds from -260 to +600 but four interceptions will do that. Remember, voters are humans with publicized votes that don’t like to be embarrassed. The last thing someone wants is to vote for an unproven player who might eventually make them look bad. So when someone like “Mr. Irrelevant” is new to the mix, he is going to have a smaller margin for error. Now, if an established media member like Peter King publicly backs Purdy, then waffling voters are more likely to vote that way. This is just human behavior, and things were trending in that direction.
Purdy has his skeptics (not me) and MVP naysayers (me). Thus, an awful primetime game will have a drastic impact. Personally, I acknowledged he has been great this season and the advanced stats indicate that. However, I felt he benefited from a system and has yet to win a single game on his own. It’s possible to have a very good season and not be MVP of the entire NFL. That was and still is my stance. I would not remotely consider betting this price. This performance cost him the award.
Tua Tagovailoa +1200 – I have wondered all season how we continue to find his name among the betting favorites with single-digit odds. This price makes slightly more sense but I still would not bet it. Narratives play such a large role in voting, and I firmly believe he faces the same resistance that Purdy does. The two QBs are surrounded by top-notch weapons, including a fellow MVP candidate (Tyreek Hill), and have an offensive genius calling plays. Fair or not, that is held against Purdy and Tua. However, in Tua’s case, he has been incredibly pedestrian against quality opponents, solely racking up stats against inferior teams. Ultimately that should cost him, even if Miami earns the top seed with wins at Baltimore and home to Buffalo in the finale. Stranger things have happened but I would need a lot higher than 12-to-1 odds to bet him.
Josh Allen +1600: This is an interesting case. The odds are enticing and he is widely regarded as an elite player, which is why he’s among the MVP favorites entering every season. Can voters break tradition and allow a guy who might lead the NFL in turnovers but sneaks into the playoffs on a Wild Card team? Seems unlikely but again, the payout is seductive. Ultimately, I would pass on this.
Dak Prescott +2000: This has value and I made this wager after Monday Night Football. First off, he’s had a fantastic season, leading the NFL with 30 passing touchdowns. He also ranks second in adjusted QBR and third in passer rating. He is right there in the conversation, if the Cowboys win their final two games and maybe Jackson and Baltimore slip up.
This Saturday night in primetime will play a major role, as Dallas hosts the Lions on ABC. Primetime games carry weight late in the season because announcers often unintentionally sway voters, much like I outlined above with a Peter King endorsement. If Prescott lights up the Lions and ESPN analyst Troy Aikman backs Prescott (Cowboys connection notwithstanding) throughout the broadcast, then that goes a long way. Plus, a strong game would ensure Prescott resonates on social media and post-game shows. Given Dallas is favored and playing at home while Miami visits Baltimore, Prescott should have shorter odds than Tua. Thus, this has value.
Tyreek Hill +2500 – I believe he is Miami’s most valuable player but I do believe that ankle injury in the Monday Night Football loss to Tennessee ended his campaign. He probably needs to break the record for single-season receiving yards and the 2K benchmark but that is unlikely now. However, next week’s game in Baltimore can go a long way.
Photo credit: Google Creative Commons License
