PICK: MLB All-Star Game 🎥

The American League (-120) is favored over the National League, after the NL snapped their nine-game losing streak last year. Plus, the under has cashed four straight years.

Photo Courtesy: Icon Sportswire

Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed. 

Unlike the NBA, NFL, and even the hockey all star games, Major League Baseball is much more watchable and I think bettable because it’s a competitive game. And that certainly looks the case this year with an over-under of seven and a half and American League only a slight minus 120 favorite. The AL has won 27 of the last 35 years, but more importantly, nine of the last 10. Now last year they had won nine straight and the National League did get the win to snap that run.

So, do we believe in these trends? I mean, it’s hard when Ohtani switch leagues and, but for me, I do lean to the American League. We’ll get into that in a sec. I think under is the right play. Four straight unders in this game. Think about all the arms, the caliber of arms that are available to managers and guys are only expected to pitch an inning or just to get a couple outs.

For example, Paul Skeens is starting the game. He’s only expected to go one inning. Just you have these elite pitchers and they’re only needing to get a couple guys out. And that’s what I think you can bank on. Now we know that batting is terrible this year. The run production is really low, but that doesn’t really apply to the All Stars. Those guys are still hitting. They have big numbers like Aaron Judges and Ohtani for that matter, both flirting with the Triple Crown. So you look at the lineups, these guys can hit as opposed to the rest of the league.

I’m not sort of swayed by the mass, sort of the macro league averages, but I do think this has become sort of a pitcher’s game and offense is a premium. So I do like the under seven and half I think that is bettable. I lean to the AL in terms of the money line. I think there’s some fun props here though. Let’s talk with Paul Skeens. We all know about the NRFI’S, no run first inning. It’s a fun bet, any game, but especially the all-star game when you know the pitcher, Skeens is going for the Pirates, obviously representing the Pirates for the National League.

Now, no run first inning, NRFI is minus 150. It’s not just the AL that the Skeens has to take care of, but it’s also Corbin Burns against the National League. And if you look at the top of the lineup, there’s some big bats. So I’m a little uneasy assuming that, cause I mean, Skeens is going to have to face Kwon and Henderson, which I’m okay with, but then Soto, and if he gets on Judge, and that’s a little different you know, with some of the guys he’s already faced and then with Burns, get Ohtani and Trey Turner in the lineup and then Harper if anyone gets on.

So at minus 150, which is a 60 % implied odds, I want no part of that. So if you liked no run first inning minus 150, you would have to say, I think there’s a better than 60 % chance that there will be no runs scored in the first inning. So I don’t think that, I think that’s right on the number. In case you’re wondering, minus 170 for a tie.

Obviously zero, zero is a tie, but so is one, one, two, two. So you have to pay a little extra juice because you can sort of backdoor that one in case there is a run on the top of the first, you have a fighting chance with exactly one run in the bottom of the first. But all that being said, the only bet I’m making is under seven and a half runs.