By Only Players Staff
Updated 8/6/24 3:14am ET
The Americans begin the knockout stage as the top overall seed but they are only 1-2 ATS so far. The Brazilians are 1-2 overall and ATS.
Photo Courtesy: Shutterstock
Automated transcript is below. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Team USA matches up with Brazil in the quarterfinals. Yeah, no wiggle room in these medal rounds. You lose and you go home. You win and you advance. Now we all expect the Americans to win this game, but will they cover? That is the question. Team USA favored by 27 and a half points over Brazil, over under 152. Now the Americans are only one and two against the spread in group play. And that’s coming into group play. They had those nail biter exhibitions where nearly lost to both Germany and South Sudan.
I realize the stakes are higher here and Team USA can’t mess around, but I still don’t think it’s an opponent that’s gonna draw their killer instinct. I know they should, but they’re going to a bunch of other Olympic events, they’re cheering other Olympians on, they’re soaking it all in because they know their talent gap is there. Now, with that being said, they can flip that proverbial switch. In fact, we saw it in the last game against Puerto Rico where Team USA trailed after the first quarter. and then outscored Puerto Rico by 23 in the second quarter and nearly covered 19 and a half on the first half line. So I’m not in a rush to bet either side. I will say this about the spread though, two of the sharpest books in town that take big limits and take sharp action, they’ve been shaded to the higher side of this point spread. So market right now is 27, 27 and a half. They’re at 27 and a half 28, meaning they don’t want any more Team USA money. Do with that what you will.
I do think there’s a bet worth making on the prop market. I hate the juice at minus 140, but I still think there’s some value here. It’s Joel Embiid under 10 and a half points. Brazil doesn’t really have a center, a lot of small ball and Steve Kerr has matched his lineup to fit the opponent. So in game two of the group play, which is the one where Tatum started, that was their small ball up and down lineup. So I don’t expect Embiid to play a whole lot. He’s on this roster really for one reason, that’s to guard Nikola Jokic. He did that in the opener group play and Serbia with Jokic looming the next round. So I think Embiid is going to have a very light lifting.
I think the bigs that are going to get a lot of lifting is going to be Anthony Davis and Bama and Abayo. So I would do Embiid under 10 and a half points. I think this is going to be a lot of the second and third units with the bigs just up and down game. I expect Brazil to cover, but I would rather only bet Embiid points under
