By Ryan Bologna
With under a week to go until the start of the MLB season, here are four prop bets that are worth a shot for 2022.
Houston Astros Over 91.5 Wins -110
Despite losing Carlos Correa, this seems like a low line for the Astros. They won 95 games in 2021 and have the highest projected win total according to Fangraphs. They will be getting Justin Verlander back and have overlooked players like Kyle Tucker.
Being in the American League West also makes this bet a good play. The Mariners have improved by adding Robbie Ray and Jesse Winker, but they also overperformed their run differential in 2021. The Rangers added Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but will still likely be an under .500 team. The Angels have Trout, Ohtani, and Rendon, but they have other question marks to answer before considering them a threat. Lastly, the Athletics are not going to be in the running this year after trading away Chris Bassitt, Matt Chapman, and Matt Olson. We will likely see departures of pitchers Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea as well.
Minnesota Twins Under 81.5 Wins -115
While the Twins likely did underperform their talent in 2021 and added Carlos Correa, they made moves in other areas that are not sure upgrades. They let go of Mitch Garver and now have Gary Sánchez at catcher, who is a downgrade and an inconsistent player at best. Getting Josh Donaldson’s contracts off the books is nice, but going from him to Gio Urshela is a downgrade.
Sonny Gray is a solid addition, but a rotation of Gray, Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober is not the greatest. Much will depend on Byron Buxton’s ability to stay healthy, but he has only played over 100 games in a season once.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Under Hits 165.5 Hits -110
Kiner-Falefa had 172 hits in 158 games in 2021. Part of the reason this is a good bet to take is because if Kiner-Falefa takes one trip to the IL then it would take a minor miracle for the over to hit.
Another reason to take the under is that the Yankees have multiple shortstop prospects in the minor leagues. Oswald Peraza, who is said to be major league ready defensively already by Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman, will be starting the season in AAA. If all goes according to plan and Peraza continues his good performance in 2022 we could see him take over the starting shortstop role in the Bronx for the second half of the season. That would lead to Kiner-Falefa being relegated to a utility role and not getting the at-bats needed to accumulate enough hits for the over.
Luis Robert Over 28.5 Home Runs -110
Some consider Robert as a sleeper MVP candidate. This looks to be his first full season in the big leagues. He played the majority of the 60-game season in 2020 and only played 68 games in 2021 due to an injury. When watching Robert play it is clear he is one of those players with great natural power, so he does not have to fully get a hold on a ball to hit it out.
Robert is projected to hit 30 home runs by Fangraphs. If Robert has a healthy season it is very feasible for him to hit over 28 home runs.
Picture Credit: thatlostdog
