By Chris Havlicek Contributor
Updated 1/9/24 4:45m ET
In the brief history of the current NFL playoff format, the top seeds of each conference have not been as distinct of Super Bowl favorites as the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are this year. However, the odds also suggest an eventual matchup of these top teams is far from guaranteed.
San Francisco is a consensus +220 championship favorite and an odds-on NFC favorite, given it would just have to win two home games before the big game. Baltimore’s title odds are in the neighborhood of +310 and its AFC odds pay out slightly more than even money (+120).
The third Super Bowl favorite is the Buffalo Bills with odds in the neighborhood of +650. By comparison, last year’s third-favorite had +450 odds (behind the +325 and +375 favorites), which indicates the top two seeds were not as clear of favorites as they are this year.
Sportsbooks also offer betting odds for eventual Super Bowl matchups. A Baltimore-San Francisco tilt is the +310 favorite but those odds only reflect a 24.4% likelihood. That means, based on the betting lines, a Super Bowl featuring the top two seeds is 75.6% unlikely to occur.
We last saw a top-seeded Super Bowl in 2017, when the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New England Patriots. However, Philly was not the NFC’s betting favorite because it was relegated to backup quarterback Nick Foles after losing MVP candidate Carson Wentz to a season-ending injury.
The top seeds of each conference have met in only 14 of the 49 Super Bowls since 1975, which is when seeding began. More recently, it has occurred four times in the last 11 years.
The 49ers and Ravens met in Week 16 in what might have been the regular season’s most memorable game. On Monday Night Football, Baltimore upset San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites, 33-19.
Super Bowl Odds: (DraftKings)
San Francisco 49ers (+220)
Baltimore Ravens (+310)
Buffalo Bills (+650)
Dallas Cowboys (+750)
Kansas City Chiefs (+1000)
Philadelphia Eagles (+1600)
Miami Dolphins (+1600)
Detroit Lions (+1800)
Cleveland Browns (+3500)
Houston Texans (+4000)
Los Angeles Rams (+4500)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6000)
Green Bay Packers (+9000)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+12000)
Super Bowl LVIII will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday, February 11.
Photo Courtesy: Shutterstock
