By Ryan Bologna
There are many factors that should be considered when betting a game. Strength of roster, matchups and weather are a few to look into, but there is arguably no more important aspect to betting on a game than knowing the injury report.
It is tricky for fans because injury reports are very different in every sport. Let’s dive into what bettors should look at to inform themselves before placing bets for all of the four major sports.
The NFL has a very detailed injury report that consistently gets updated throughout the week. Teams are required to submit lists of a player’s participation in practice leading up to the game, which can give fans a sense of whether that player will be able to play or not. The next requirement for the teams is to submit a game status report two days before the game is played that week. A player dealing with an injury will be listed as out, doubtful or questionable. Any player designated as out will not play that week, while a player listed as doubtful or questionable will not have a final decision until game day. A list of inactive players is usually posted on social media before the game starts.
Bettors should wait until game day to place their bets on games because the injury report can change throughout the week in unexpected ways. For players that are listed as doubtful, expect them to have a limited amount of snaps if they do play at all. Players listed as questionable could be limited in the game plan as well, but it depends on the position and the injury. The NFL injury report is as informative as it gets in sports, so bettors should use it to their advantage.
MLB makes it easy to formulate a betting strategy as well. Lineups are posted on social media hours before the game, so there is almost never a big shock of a key player not being able to play right before the first pitch. If a player goes on the injured list it is usually announced at the same time the lineup is released. The manager will sometimes indicate whether a player will get a day or two off when they suffer a minor injury as well. The bottom line is bettors should wait until two to three hours before the first pitch to see who is in the starting lineup.
The NBA is where it gets a bit tricky. The league rules state that teams must report injuries, illness or a potential rest day for a player. The rest is where it can get tricky though, because given how teams in the league have operated in recent years it is hard to trust that certain players will play in a game until you actually see them on the court just before tip-off. Even if a certain player is starting, their minutes might be heavily limited as well. Bettors should use a similar strategy as betting on MLB games. Wait until about an hour before tip before placing your bets just to be sure of the starting lineups.
The NHL is the most vague league when it comes to injuries, and it can get frustrating. Teams are not required to disclose injuries. They will just say a certain player has an upper or lower body injury with no further detail. For instance, when Sidney Crosby missed time in the playoffs many assumed it was a concussion and he would miss the rest of that round. But when the series went to game seven he was all of a sudden good to go.
As I reported on The Point, multiple sources have confirmed Sidney Crosby has a concussion.
Obviously a positive sign he skated this morning, but given the nature of head injuries, it’s unfair to speculate when he may return.
— Emily Kaplan (@emilymkaplan) May 13, 2022
This can make futures bets tough, but teams still announce who is going to play in a certain game. The starting lineup will almost always be consistent with what it was in practice that morning. Beat reporters will usually post that information on Twitter the morning of a game. The best advice for betting on individual games is similar to everything else, wait until an hour or so before the game. Especially because teams can be a bit secretive about who the starting goalie will be on a given night. You do not want to bet on a team and then find out they are going with their backup in net.
Changes to the way leagues report injuries will be something to keep an eye on in the near future. Especially for a league that is pretty secretive about injuries their players have like the NHL. It is already a frustration of current sports bettors, so you can only imagine that the fans will get louder as gambling gets more popular and the league continues to partner with sportsbooks.
Photo Credit: Jai Agnish
