By Doug Kezirian Chief Content Officer
Updated 8/24/23 5:28am ET
Here are my top three QB props for the upcoming NFL season:
1) Lamar Jackson under 3,500.5 passing yards (-120)
This number has come down a bit but I still believe it is worth a play. There are just way more ways to win this than lose it, which should be the case for any season-long wager that will tie up money for four-plus months.
First off, he has only come remotely close to this number in one season (3,127), and that was his 2019 MVP campaign. I realize the schedule now has one more game but the injuries are also becoming a slight issue, as he has been limited to 12 games in each of the past two years. I understand Baltimore has a new offensive coordinator with aspirations of throwing more but I still think the conservative John Harbaugh will weigh in more than they believe. Finally, Jackson is not all that accurate and he also can break off long runs because he is such a dynamic weapon. For me to lose this wager, Jackson has to stay healthy and throw for as many yards as only 14 QBs did last season. Again, more ways to win than lose.
2) Bryce Young under 3,400.5 passing yards
I maintain that he will struggle at the NFL level and likely not survive a full season. He has all the characteristics that you want in a franchise quarterback except the necessary size. I am rooting for him but I am also trying to be practical. Young is not even 5-foot-10 or 200 pounds. Do we really expect him to stay healthy and light up opposing defenses? There is going to be an adjustment period, just like there is for all rookie quarterbacks, and Frank Reich can only do so much.
3) Anthony Richardson +1000 to have most rookie passing yards
I have come around and now believe he can become a consistent NFL starter. At 6-foot-4 and nearly 250 pounds, Richardson reminds me and many others of Cam Newton or even Josh Allen. Plus, as everyone knows, new coach Shane Steichen just led an extremely successful evolution of MVP runner-up Jalen Hurts. I am banking on Richardson’s physical prowess to consume opposing defenses, allowing him to rack up easy yardage. That is more than doable, especially in garbage time of blowouts.
His passing yards prop is 2,800.5, and I much prefer the 10-to-1 payout instead of -110 on his over. Obviously finishing the season as the rookie leader involves more boxes to check but I think the it all justifies going for the loftier payout. I already shared my thoughts on Bryce Young and that leaves C.J. Stroud as the main competition.
+1000 translates to a 9.1% chance. For me, Richardson’s chances are much higher so this wager just comes down to value.
Photo credit: Lamar Jackson‘s Instagram
