By Chris Harris Contributor
Updated 10/27/23 1:07pm ET
At seven-foot-four and widely considered a generational talent, top overall NBA pick Victor Wembanyama seems well on his way to earning numerous accolades and hardware. However, a new league rule has disrupted his chances to win Rookie of the Year and forced oddsmakers to account for an unprecedented variable.
The 19-year-old Frenchman is currently a consensus -140 favorite to win Rookie of the Year but that price would be in the neighborhood of -400 in previous seasons, as two oddsmakers told our wagering expert Doug Kezirian.
In an effort to limit teams voluntarily resting players, the NBA now requires a minimum of 65 games to qualify for any award. That means Wembanyama must not miss more than 17 games. Since the league expanded to an 82-game schedule, there have been four instances of a Rookie of the Year not reaching the 65-game threshold. Coincidentally, Wembanyama plays for Spurs head coach Greg Popovich, who created and normalized the concept of “load management”.
NBA Rookie of the Year Odds (Courtesy of FanDuel)
Victor Wembanyama -150
Chet Holmgren +380
Scoot Henderson +500
Brandon Miller +3400
Amen Thompson +4200
Wemby also has a significant injury history, which includes a broken fibula in 2020, a broken finger in 2021, a 2021 shoulder contusion that cost him two months and a muscle injury that knocked him out of the 2022 French League playoffs. Additionally, hoop legends Yao Ming, Ralph Sampson and Arvydas Sabonis all stand at least 7-foot-3 and had Hall-of-Fame careers but still battled significant injuries.
Plus, second-favorite Chet Holmgren (+380 at FanDuel) is 7-foot-1 and missed all of last season with a Lisfranc injury. He was the #2 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft but is still considered a rookie this year.
Photo Courtesy: Doug Kezirian
